Saddle up to a bar in these cities and commiserate with the locals
By Matthew Taylor
The fact that they’re in second place doesn’t matter; .500 baseball is what matters. An even record would end the extended run of futility that has overshadowed the team’s glorious past. And it could mean bringing fans back to one of baseball’s most beautiful ballparks.
Sound familiar? It should if you’re a fan of the Birds (25-27) or the Pittsburgh Pirates (23-28), currently two of Major League Baseball’s most futile franchises.
Party like it’s 1979? Hardly. That’s the season when Pittsburgh won 98 games and its most recent World Series. Meanwhile, the O’s won 102 games for the first of two consecutive 100-win campaigns.
Four years later the Birds recovered from a stunning Pirates comeback in the ’79 Series to win their most recent World Series. And things haven’t been the same since.
Where have you gone, Joe Altobelli?
The Birds’ trip to Kansas City this week got me curious about bad baseball. (Coincidence? I think not.) Think things are bad in Charm City? Okay, they are. But misery loves company, so here are some spots worth visiting if you’re looking for fans with whom to commiserate.
Pittsburgh (14 straight losing seasons)
Clouds over the franchise:
-Current record below .500.
-Last playoff appearance: 1992 (lost NLCS to Atlanta, four games to three).
-Average 2007 attendance at PNC Park: 19,358.
-100 losses in 2001.
The silver lining:
-Five World Championships, nine pennants, and 14 playoff appearances.
-Jason Bay.
-“We Are Family” still a classic.
Tampa Bay (9 straight losing seasons)
Clouds over the franchise:
-Team has never had a winning season, a run of nine straight losing seasons to match the Birds.
-Rays have lost at least 90 games every season.
-Thirty percent of the team's seasons have ended with at least 100 losses.
-Never finished higher than fourth in the AL East.
-Average 2007 attendance at Tropicana Field: 14,410 (lowest in the majors).
-Promising young prospects have tested the limits of “no such thing as bad publicity” adage.
The silver lining:
-Wade Bogg’s 3,000th hit at The Trop – a home run, no less.
-James Shields off to a good start in 2007.
-How bout ‘dem Tampa Bay Lightning?
Kansas City (3 straight losing seasons)
Clouds over the franchise:
-Prior to winning 83 games in 2003 the team had eight straight losing seasons.
-Royals have finished below .500 in 11 of the last 12 seasons.
-Lost 100 games in four of the last five seasons.
-A lock to finish below .500 again this season.
-Average 2007 attendance at Kauffman Stadium: 17,820 (29th in MLB).
The silver lining:
-Alex Gordon.
-Joakim Soria (although he’s currently on the DL).
-At least they’ve got good barbecue.
Proof there’s still hope for the O’s -
Detroit
-Appeared in the 2006 World Series after 12 consecutive losing seasons, including 119 losses in 2003 (a .265 winning percentage).
Milwaukee
-Twelve straight losing seasons prior to finishing 81-81 in 2005; finished below .500 in 13 of 14 seasons heading into 2007; currently leading the NL Central behind young heavy hitter Prince Fielder.
Other notable losing streaks: Colorado (6 seasons), Cincinnati (6).
Thursday, May 31, 2007
Tuesday, May 29, 2007
Damned If They Do, Damned If They Don't
Sports Reporters caught in a Catch-22 with Johnson story
By Matthew Taylor
The big news this weekend, reported Sunday, was that the Birds could pursue Davey Johnson to replace Sam Perlozzo if the team’s struggles continue. Johnson, of course, fired back angrily, blaming – Who else? – the media.
Said Johnson: "That's why people write, because they dream up stuff and want to put pressure on people. Leave me out of these sordid little games you play."
The sordid games here are being played by the Birds front office, not by the media. It’s a case of Diamond Politics at its best.
White House reporters know well the perils of the “trial balloon.” An anonymous source in a high place leaks information in order to safely gauge public without making an on-the-record statement. If the reaction is negative, guess who falls under attack? The media, of course.
Granted, journalists aren’t supposed to deal in speculation, but for baseball reporters it's practically part of their job description: “Ability to speculate about potential trades, free agent signings, and manager firings strongly preferred.”
Writer are damned if they do, damned if they don't. Why do you suppose ESPN has a "Rumor Central" section on its website? And you have to pay extra to access that information!
In this case the writers got a raw deal. I can think of better ways to spend my Memorial Day weekend than to get belittled by a former O’s manager. Shame on the O’s front office, and shame on Davey Johnson.
By Matthew Taylor
The big news this weekend, reported Sunday, was that the Birds could pursue Davey Johnson to replace Sam Perlozzo if the team’s struggles continue. Johnson, of course, fired back angrily, blaming – Who else? – the media.
Said Johnson: "That's why people write, because they dream up stuff and want to put pressure on people. Leave me out of these sordid little games you play."
The sordid games here are being played by the Birds front office, not by the media. It’s a case of Diamond Politics at its best.
White House reporters know well the perils of the “trial balloon.” An anonymous source in a high place leaks information in order to safely gauge public without making an on-the-record statement. If the reaction is negative, guess who falls under attack? The media, of course.
Granted, journalists aren’t supposed to deal in speculation, but for baseball reporters it's practically part of their job description: “Ability to speculate about potential trades, free agent signings, and manager firings strongly preferred.”
Writer are damned if they do, damned if they don't. Why do you suppose ESPN has a "Rumor Central" section on its website? And you have to pay extra to access that information!
In this case the writers got a raw deal. I can think of better ways to spend my Memorial Day weekend than to get belittled by a former O’s manager. Shame on the O’s front office, and shame on Davey Johnson.
¿Quién es más macho?
Bullpen boo Birds jeer Baez; What if he looked like Eric Davis?
By Matthew Taylor
With apologies to Steve Kline, I'm curious if Danys Baez has worked his way up to - or even past - Terry Mathews to become the O's reliever who generates the most visceral reaction from fans after the bullpen gates open up.
Baez is now earning the kind of response at the Yard that was (sadly) once reserved for Mathews.
Consider The Post's report on the recent series against the Jays:
"The two sounds Danys Baez heard Thursday night surely will ring in his sleep, worse than most nightmares. One was the deafening crack of his flat sinker off the bat of Alex Rios. The other was the boos that cascaded from every corner of Oriole Park at Camden Yards before, during and after Baez took the mound in the 10th inning."
Oriole Magic started its own "Danys Baez Stinks Discussion" after that game.
All of this "love" for Baez brought to mind the 1997 ALDS when Terry Mathews was forcefully booed while entering a game against the Mariners.
Roch Kubatko of The Sun attended that playoff game. So did I. Fortunately, I didn't have to write a post-game reaction story about Mathews. Roch did, as he explained last season in his blog entry about "Worst Orioles Pitcher Ever."
Mathews related the fans' reaction to his plus-size weight and called to mind the physique of Eric Davis. O's fans then fell all over themselves apologizing, sending Mathews cards and gift baskets.
So, ¿Quién es más macho: Danys Baez or Terry Mathews?
By Matthew TaylorWith apologies to Steve Kline, I'm curious if Danys Baez has worked his way up to - or even past - Terry Mathews to become the O's reliever who generates the most visceral reaction from fans after the bullpen gates open up.
Baez is now earning the kind of response at the Yard that was (sadly) once reserved for Mathews.
Consider The Post's report on the recent series against the Jays:
"The two sounds Danys Baez heard Thursday night surely will ring in his sleep, worse than most nightmares. One was the deafening crack of his flat sinker off the bat of Alex Rios. The other was the boos that cascaded from every corner of Oriole Park at Camden Yards before, during and after Baez took the mound in the 10th inning."
Oriole Magic started its own "Danys Baez Stinks Discussion" after that game.
All of this "love" for Baez brought to mind the 1997 ALDS when Terry Mathews was forcefully booed while entering a game against the Mariners.
Roch Kubatko of The Sun attended that playoff game. So did I. Fortunately, I didn't have to write a post-game reaction story about Mathews. Roch did, as he explained last season in his blog entry about "Worst Orioles Pitcher Ever."
Mathews related the fans' reaction to his plus-size weight and called to mind the physique of Eric Davis. O's fans then fell all over themselves apologizing, sending Mathews cards and gift baskets.
So, ¿Quién es más macho: Danys Baez or Terry Mathews?
Thursday, May 24, 2007
New Orioles Rules
And we're not talking about beer in the clubhouse
By Christopher Heun
One story out of spring training this year was that manager Sam Perlozzo was running a tighter ship than in the past. But after watching his bullpen (well, mostly just Danys Baez) blow two leads and suffer aching losses two Sundays in a row, maybe this team needs even more discipline.
So, we suggest the following rules:
Rule #1: Erik Bedard after 98 pitches is still better than anyone in the Orioles bullpen.
Last Sunday in DC, Bedard told Perlozzo he was tired after 7 innings. Baez entered the game and quickly snatched defeat from the jaws of victory.
Bedard is this team's version of an ace. Couldn't he take the mound one more time and give it his best shot?
Rule #2: On The Seventh Day, Baez Rests
No Danys Baez on Sundays. Last Sunday makes twice in row that he has failed on the first day of the week. Let’s hope we don’t see him Memorial Day Eve when the A's visit Camden Yards.
Rule #3: Meet Baez Behind the Dugout After the 8th Inning
Last week, Jay Payton and Melvin Mora nearly came to fisticuffs in the dugout, followed the next night by a shouting match between Freddie Bynum and first base coach Sam Mejias (a guy who plays once a month mixing it up with a little-known coach: what’s next, the bat boy making yo’ momma jokes about the traveling secretary?)
The guy who really deserves to be beaten up by his teammates is Baez.
Rule #3A: Not All Rules Are About Danys Baez.
Really. They’re not. Keep reading.
Rule #4: Perlozzo Can’t Pull His Starter Until He Gives Up At Least 3 Runs
Yeah, yeah, we know: a bullpen should be able to get two, three, even six outs before squandering leads of as much as five runs. But how about letting the starters go a little longer?
Bedard and Jeremy Guthrie (the starter on Sunday, May 12, the first of Baez's blowups) are both 28 years old. They're physically capable of throwing 100 pitches, even -- gasp -- 109. Dare to be bold.
Rule #5: We Don’t Want the Real Steve Trachsel Anyway
Let's not look too hard for the real Steve Trachsel, because the one pitching for the Orioles is making us forget everything we said about him in spring training (hint: it wasn't good).
In half of his 10 starts this season, Trachsel has pitched at least six innings and allowed less than three earned runs. He's allowed more than three earned runs only once.
Rule #6: Jay Gibbons Should Stop His Rodrigo Lopez Impression
Last season, Lopez whined when he was banished to the bullpen after his ERA swelled to more than 6.00. This year, an unhappy Gibbons has been singing the same tune when his playing time shrunk.
Our reaction to Gibbons is exactly the same as what we had to say to Lopez: who is he kidding? Be thankful you signed that four-year contract when you did.
By Christopher Heun
One story out of spring training this year was that manager Sam Perlozzo was running a tighter ship than in the past. But after watching his bullpen (well, mostly just Danys Baez) blow two leads and suffer aching losses two Sundays in a row, maybe this team needs even more discipline.
So, we suggest the following rules:
Rule #1: Erik Bedard after 98 pitches is still better than anyone in the Orioles bullpen.
Last Sunday in DC, Bedard told Perlozzo he was tired after 7 innings. Baez entered the game and quickly snatched defeat from the jaws of victory.
Bedard is this team's version of an ace. Couldn't he take the mound one more time and give it his best shot?
Rule #2: On The Seventh Day, Baez Rests
No Danys Baez on Sundays. Last Sunday makes twice in row that he has failed on the first day of the week. Let’s hope we don’t see him Memorial Day Eve when the A's visit Camden Yards.
Rule #3: Meet Baez Behind the Dugout After the 8th Inning
Last week, Jay Payton and Melvin Mora nearly came to fisticuffs in the dugout, followed the next night by a shouting match between Freddie Bynum and first base coach Sam Mejias (a guy who plays once a month mixing it up with a little-known coach: what’s next, the bat boy making yo’ momma jokes about the traveling secretary?)
The guy who really deserves to be beaten up by his teammates is Baez.
Rule #3A: Not All Rules Are About Danys Baez.
Really. They’re not. Keep reading.
Rule #4: Perlozzo Can’t Pull His Starter Until He Gives Up At Least 3 Runs
Yeah, yeah, we know: a bullpen should be able to get two, three, even six outs before squandering leads of as much as five runs. But how about letting the starters go a little longer?
Bedard and Jeremy Guthrie (the starter on Sunday, May 12, the first of Baez's blowups) are both 28 years old. They're physically capable of throwing 100 pitches, even -- gasp -- 109. Dare to be bold.
Rule #5: We Don’t Want the Real Steve Trachsel Anyway
Let's not look too hard for the real Steve Trachsel, because the one pitching for the Orioles is making us forget everything we said about him in spring training (hint: it wasn't good).
In half of his 10 starts this season, Trachsel has pitched at least six innings and allowed less than three earned runs. He's allowed more than three earned runs only once.
Rule #6: Jay Gibbons Should Stop His Rodrigo Lopez Impression
Last season, Lopez whined when he was banished to the bullpen after his ERA swelled to more than 6.00. This year, an unhappy Gibbons has been singing the same tune when his playing time shrunk.
Our reaction to Gibbons is exactly the same as what we had to say to Lopez: who is he kidding? Be thankful you signed that four-year contract when you did.
Thursday, May 17, 2007
Everything I need to know I learned from ...
...a desk calendar.
By Matthew Taylor
It's amazing what you can learn from a desk calendar.
First, some trivia -
The calendar asks ...
"Q: Who was the only baseball pitcher to notch World Series wins in three separate decades?
A: Hall of Fame hurler Jim Palmer, who won World Series games for the Baltimore Orioles in 1966, 1970, 1971, and 1983."
Next, some history -
The calendar says ...
"May 9, 1961: Diamond Jim Gentile becomes the first player to hit grand-slam homers in consecutive innings, leading the Orioles to a 13–5 rout of the Twins at the Met in Bloomington. After connecting in the first and second innings, Gentile adds another RBI for a total of nine in the game. Only Tony Lazzeri (1936), Jim Tabor (1939) and Jimmie Foxx (1946) had hit two slams in one game. In all, Gentile will hit 46 homers and 141 RBIs in 1961, the best season of his career."
Some extra research tells us ...
Gentile was a three-time All-Star with the Orioles from 1960 to 1962. He was traded by the Orioles, with $25,000, to the Kansas City Athletics in Nov. 1963 for Norm Siebern, also a three-time All-Star. Siebern's third and final All-Star appearance came with the Birds in 1964 when he batted .245 with 12 home runs and 56 RBIs.
The calendar says ...
"May 17, 1978: Super sub Lee Lacy of the Los Angeles Dodgers becomes the first man in baseball history to hit three consecutive pinch home runs in three official times at bat when he connects off Jim Rooker of the Pirates at Dodger Stadium. Earlier this month, Lacy homered off Rick Reuschel of the Cubs and John Candelaria of Pittsburgh. In 1979 Del Unser of the Phillies will equal Lacy’s achievement, and Matthew LeCroy of the Minnesota Twins will become the third member of this unique club in 2004."
Some extra research tells us ...
Lacy finished his career with the Orioles after signing with the team as a free agent in 1984. He played three seasons in Orange and Black (1985 through 1987), his only three seasons in the American League. Random fact: He appeared on the cover of "Sports Illustrated" - a World Series photo of him sliding into Yankee Fred Stanley at second base - on Oct. 23, 1978.
Thanks, Page-A-Day.
By Matthew Taylor
It's amazing what you can learn from a desk calendar.
First, some trivia -
The calendar asks ...
"Q: Who was the only baseball pitcher to notch World Series wins in three separate decades?
A: Hall of Fame hurler Jim Palmer, who won World Series games for the Baltimore Orioles in 1966, 1970, 1971, and 1983."
Next, some history -
The calendar says ...
"May 9, 1961: Diamond Jim Gentile becomes the first player to hit grand-slam homers in consecutive innings, leading the Orioles to a 13–5 rout of the Twins at the Met in Bloomington. After connecting in the first and second innings, Gentile adds another RBI for a total of nine in the game. Only Tony Lazzeri (1936), Jim Tabor (1939) and Jimmie Foxx (1946) had hit two slams in one game. In all, Gentile will hit 46 homers and 141 RBIs in 1961, the best season of his career."
Some extra research tells us ...
Gentile was a three-time All-Star with the Orioles from 1960 to 1962. He was traded by the Orioles, with $25,000, to the Kansas City Athletics in Nov. 1963 for Norm Siebern, also a three-time All-Star. Siebern's third and final All-Star appearance came with the Birds in 1964 when he batted .245 with 12 home runs and 56 RBIs.
The calendar says ...
"May 17, 1978: Super sub Lee Lacy of the Los Angeles Dodgers becomes the first man in baseball history to hit three consecutive pinch home runs in three official times at bat when he connects off Jim Rooker of the Pirates at Dodger Stadium. Earlier this month, Lacy homered off Rick Reuschel of the Cubs and John Candelaria of Pittsburgh. In 1979 Del Unser of the Phillies will equal Lacy’s achievement, and Matthew LeCroy of the Minnesota Twins will become the third member of this unique club in 2004."
Some extra research tells us ...
Lacy finished his career with the Orioles after signing with the team as a free agent in 1984. He played three seasons in Orange and Black (1985 through 1987), his only three seasons in the American League. Random fact: He appeared on the cover of "Sports Illustrated" - a World Series photo of him sliding into Yankee Fred Stanley at second base - on Oct. 23, 1978.
Thanks, Page-A-Day.
Tuesday, May 15, 2007
Down With Pitch Counts
Someone tell Perlozzo to stop stacking his relievers one inning at a time
By Christopher Heun
Let’s get two things straight: Managers shouldn’t be fired because of one bad decision (unless they’re named Grady Little). And relief pitchers can be asked to pitch more than one inning per outing.
It’s easy in hindsight to knock Sam Perlozzo for Sunday’s Mother’s Day Massacre in Boston, when he pulled his starting pitcher, leading 5-0 with one out in the bottom of the ninth, only to watch his bullpen blow the game. It’s not the skipper’s fault when his pitchers can’t throw strikes.
But it is fair to criticize Perlozzo for his faulty logic when calling on his bullpen. He needs to stop counting pitches and go with a hot hand.
We don’t want to get too hung up about what happened on Sunday, because the real problem is not that particular game, but here’s how Perlozzo explained why he yanked Jeremy Guthrie:
Why fault the pitcher if a batter reaches on an error on a ball that never left the infield? If a pitcher is throwing strikes and getting hitters out with a minimum of pitches, why not leave him in? This applies to Guthrie on Sunday (just 91 pitches, two outs away from a shutout) as it does to every arm in the bullpen.
Perlozzo rarely asks a reliever to go longer than a single inning. We took a look at the work history so far this season of the three new arms in the Orioles bullpen – experienced relievers with proven track records who signed over the winter for a combined $41.5 million.
All three are on pace to pitch in 80 games this season (a career high for all of them), though their total innings would not exceed their previous marks.
What that says to us: Perlozzo is using them more often than previous managers, but he’s not asking them to pitch more innings, necessarily. Is one approach better than another? Would they be more effective if used longer but less often?
Jamie Walker 4.20 ERA, 15 IP, 5 BB, 16 K, 1 HR
Last year with Detroit, Walker pitched two innings six times and was called on to get five outs an additional four occasions. This occurred at about the same frequency the previous three seasons.
This year, he pitched more than one inning for the first time last Friday night at Boston. Meanwhile, he’s on pace to come close to his career high of 65 innings pitched.
Chad Bradford 3.07 ERA, 14.2 IP, 5 BB, 8 K, 0 HR
He’s pitched more than one inning twice so far in 2007. Last year for the Mets he did so 10 times; in 2004 he did it 13 times and 23 times in 2003.
Danys Baez 4.91 ERA, 18.1 IP, 8 BB, 8 K, 4 HR
In nine of his 20 appearances this season, Baez has thrown nine pitches or less. All but four times he’s pitched exactly 1 inning; only once has he gone longer. He pitched more than an inning 10 times in 2006 and 17 times in both 2005 and 2004.
Here’s an extreme example of why this matters: on April 11 vs. Detroit, Adam Loewen didn’t allow a run but lasted just 5 innings; the Tigers won in the 12th on a grand slam by Craig Monroe off Kurt Birkins. Perlozzo used seven relievers that night, each one pitching exactly an inning, even though two (Bradford and Scott Williamson) threw just nine pitches and three others threw 15 or less.
We have no quibble with Perlozzo’s decisions on individual match-ups. In fact, asking a reliever to pitch more than an inning contradicts the conventional strategy of lefties facing lefties. Regardless, setting up those match-ups is a luxury Perlozzo doesn’t have most nights when his starter can’t get past the fifth inning.
We're rooting for Sam Perlozzo, an Orioles coach for 10 years before being named manager. The players were enthusiastic about his hiring and seem to like playing for him (though no one has spoken up in his defense this week while fans cry for his head). He deserves a shot to manage a team with a decent bench and bullpen, two things he didn’t have last year, which made it hard to evaluate his skills as a manager.
He still doesn’t have much of a bench, but he does have a better bullpen in 2007. Is he using it wisely?
By Christopher Heun
Let’s get two things straight: Managers shouldn’t be fired because of one bad decision (unless they’re named Grady Little). And relief pitchers can be asked to pitch more than one inning per outing.
It’s easy in hindsight to knock Sam Perlozzo for Sunday’s Mother’s Day Massacre in Boston, when he pulled his starting pitcher, leading 5-0 with one out in the bottom of the ninth, only to watch his bullpen blow the game. It’s not the skipper’s fault when his pitchers can’t throw strikes.
But it is fair to criticize Perlozzo for his faulty logic when calling on his bullpen. He needs to stop counting pitches and go with a hot hand.
We don’t want to get too hung up about what happened on Sunday, because the real problem is not that particular game, but here’s how Perlozzo explained why he yanked Jeremy Guthrie:
“He was going into nine innings [of] work, and he had never gone past six. We were pretty much giving him an opportunity - if he could go 1-2-3 - to stay in the ballgame. It was unfortunate that the guy got on the way he did [by an error], but at that point, I thought we had our fresh arms out there and I didn't want anything to get out of hand. Obviously, it didn't work.”
Why fault the pitcher if a batter reaches on an error on a ball that never left the infield? If a pitcher is throwing strikes and getting hitters out with a minimum of pitches, why not leave him in? This applies to Guthrie on Sunday (just 91 pitches, two outs away from a shutout) as it does to every arm in the bullpen.
Perlozzo rarely asks a reliever to go longer than a single inning. We took a look at the work history so far this season of the three new arms in the Orioles bullpen – experienced relievers with proven track records who signed over the winter for a combined $41.5 million.
All three are on pace to pitch in 80 games this season (a career high for all of them), though their total innings would not exceed their previous marks.
What that says to us: Perlozzo is using them more often than previous managers, but he’s not asking them to pitch more innings, necessarily. Is one approach better than another? Would they be more effective if used longer but less often?
Jamie Walker 4.20 ERA, 15 IP, 5 BB, 16 K, 1 HR
Last year with Detroit, Walker pitched two innings six times and was called on to get five outs an additional four occasions. This occurred at about the same frequency the previous three seasons.
This year, he pitched more than one inning for the first time last Friday night at Boston. Meanwhile, he’s on pace to come close to his career high of 65 innings pitched.
Chad Bradford 3.07 ERA, 14.2 IP, 5 BB, 8 K, 0 HR
He’s pitched more than one inning twice so far in 2007. Last year for the Mets he did so 10 times; in 2004 he did it 13 times and 23 times in 2003.
Danys Baez 4.91 ERA, 18.1 IP, 8 BB, 8 K, 4 HR
In nine of his 20 appearances this season, Baez has thrown nine pitches or less. All but four times he’s pitched exactly 1 inning; only once has he gone longer. He pitched more than an inning 10 times in 2006 and 17 times in both 2005 and 2004.
Here’s an extreme example of why this matters: on April 11 vs. Detroit, Adam Loewen didn’t allow a run but lasted just 5 innings; the Tigers won in the 12th on a grand slam by Craig Monroe off Kurt Birkins. Perlozzo used seven relievers that night, each one pitching exactly an inning, even though two (Bradford and Scott Williamson) threw just nine pitches and three others threw 15 or less.
We have no quibble with Perlozzo’s decisions on individual match-ups. In fact, asking a reliever to pitch more than an inning contradicts the conventional strategy of lefties facing lefties. Regardless, setting up those match-ups is a luxury Perlozzo doesn’t have most nights when his starter can’t get past the fifth inning.
We're rooting for Sam Perlozzo, an Orioles coach for 10 years before being named manager. The players were enthusiastic about his hiring and seem to like playing for him (though no one has spoken up in his defense this week while fans cry for his head). He deserves a shot to manage a team with a decent bench and bullpen, two things he didn’t have last year, which made it hard to evaluate his skills as a manager.
He still doesn’t have much of a bench, but he does have a better bullpen in 2007. Is he using it wisely?
Wednesday, May 09, 2007
New Cleanup Hitter Just 291 Games Away
Should the best hitter on the team bat third or fourth?
By Christopher Heun
“Let’s face it, Miguel Tejada is a great hitter but he’s not a cleanup hitter.”
Joe Angel, during his play-by-play of the Orioles-Indians game, Sunday, May 6.
"That would really be a dream come true [to play for the Orioles]. But at the same time, I have two years here with Texas and I’m going to concentrate on winning with Texas."
Mark Teixeira, as told to Jon Heyman of SI.com in March.
Joe Angel calls them as he sees them. That’s one of the many pleasures of listening to him describe a baseball game on the radio. Sunday afternoon, he let forth a quick aside about the reshuffled Orioles lineup and the proper place for the team’s best hitter, Tejada, that had us pining for a particular Severna Park, Md. native.
Instead of hitting Tejada fourth, manager Sam Perlozzo has moved him up to third lately, which if nothing else, guarantees that he gets an at-bat in the first inning. Angel may be correct – Miggy is best suited to bat third (despite hitting cleanup for much of his tenure in Baltimore) – but the sad fact is, now there’s a hole in the cleanup spot.
Let’s hope Peter Angelos and the bean counters in The Warehouse are saving up for local boy Teixeira, a free agent after the 2008 season, because he’s the closest the Birds can come to a real cleanup hitter any time soon.
Teixeira, who grew up an O’s fan, slugged 140 home runs in his first four seasons, the fourth highest total in major-league history. He’s hit more than 30 homers three years in a row, and 43 in 2005.
By comparison, the Orioles have had just two players hit 40 or more homers since 1990: Brady Anderson (50) in 1996 and Rafael Palmiero (43) in 1998. In addition to those two, only four other Orioles players have managed to hit 30 or more homers in a season since 1990 (Palmiero did it four times, from 1995 to 1998): Albert Belle (37 in 1999), Tony Batista (31 in 2002), Tejada (34 in 2004) and Cal Ripken (34 in 1991).
Funny that Cal’s name should creep into the conversation. He was the Orioles shortstop who played every day, batted third and won MVP awards. Tejada has picked up the mantle.
This may come as heresy to some fans in Baltimore, but Miggy is fast becoming not just the best hitting Oriole shortstop, but the best hitter in Oriole history.
In just three years wearing the orange and black, Tejada has set the team single-season records for hits and RBI, tied another (doubles) and nearly set a fourth; his .330 average in 2006 ranks among the best in team history.
Because of his high average and declining power, he would look better hitting third if there was thunder behind him. Angel did say Sunday that Ramon Hernandez, who’s filled that spot most games, might not be a cleanup hitter, either, but he’s been hot lately.
Overall, we like that Perlozzo’s not afraid to juggle the lineup a bit, dropping Melvin Mora from the No. 2 spot and substituting Nick Markakis against righties and Jay Payton vs. lefties. Because he sees so many pitches, coaxes walks and gets on base better than nearly all of his teammates, Kevin Millar might be worth a shot batting in front of Tejada as well.
Listen long enough to Angel, and he just might tell you so himself.
By Christopher Heun
“Let’s face it, Miguel Tejada is a great hitter but he’s not a cleanup hitter.”
Joe Angel, during his play-by-play of the Orioles-Indians game, Sunday, May 6.
"That would really be a dream come true [to play for the Orioles]. But at the same time, I have two years here with Texas and I’m going to concentrate on winning with Texas."
Mark Teixeira, as told to Jon Heyman of SI.com in March.
Joe Angel calls them as he sees them. That’s one of the many pleasures of listening to him describe a baseball game on the radio. Sunday afternoon, he let forth a quick aside about the reshuffled Orioles lineup and the proper place for the team’s best hitter, Tejada, that had us pining for a particular Severna Park, Md. native.
Instead of hitting Tejada fourth, manager Sam Perlozzo has moved him up to third lately, which if nothing else, guarantees that he gets an at-bat in the first inning. Angel may be correct – Miggy is best suited to bat third (despite hitting cleanup for much of his tenure in Baltimore) – but the sad fact is, now there’s a hole in the cleanup spot.
Let’s hope Peter Angelos and the bean counters in The Warehouse are saving up for local boy Teixeira, a free agent after the 2008 season, because he’s the closest the Birds can come to a real cleanup hitter any time soon.
Teixeira, who grew up an O’s fan, slugged 140 home runs in his first four seasons, the fourth highest total in major-league history. He’s hit more than 30 homers three years in a row, and 43 in 2005.
By comparison, the Orioles have had just two players hit 40 or more homers since 1990: Brady Anderson (50) in 1996 and Rafael Palmiero (43) in 1998. In addition to those two, only four other Orioles players have managed to hit 30 or more homers in a season since 1990 (Palmiero did it four times, from 1995 to 1998): Albert Belle (37 in 1999), Tony Batista (31 in 2002), Tejada (34 in 2004) and Cal Ripken (34 in 1991).
Funny that Cal’s name should creep into the conversation. He was the Orioles shortstop who played every day, batted third and won MVP awards. Tejada has picked up the mantle.
This may come as heresy to some fans in Baltimore, but Miggy is fast becoming not just the best hitting Oriole shortstop, but the best hitter in Oriole history.
In just three years wearing the orange and black, Tejada has set the team single-season records for hits and RBI, tied another (doubles) and nearly set a fourth; his .330 average in 2006 ranks among the best in team history.
Because of his high average and declining power, he would look better hitting third if there was thunder behind him. Angel did say Sunday that Ramon Hernandez, who’s filled that spot most games, might not be a cleanup hitter, either, but he’s been hot lately.
Overall, we like that Perlozzo’s not afraid to juggle the lineup a bit, dropping Melvin Mora from the No. 2 spot and substituting Nick Markakis against righties and Jay Payton vs. lefties. Because he sees so many pitches, coaxes walks and gets on base better than nearly all of his teammates, Kevin Millar might be worth a shot batting in front of Tejada as well.
Listen long enough to Angel, and he just might tell you so himself.
Wednesday, May 02, 2007
How Much Is Inside That Glass, Anyway?
It's really not as bad as it seems. Or is it?
By Christopher Heun
The Orioles have the day off Thursday. But the bullpen will be warming up regardless, just for the sake of routine.
There’s an old baseball adage that says you’re never as good as when you win, and likewise you’re never as bad as when you lose. We’re going to lean on that heavily as we consider the O’s performance so far this season.
The good news about this year’s Birds is they’re not as bad as the team that’s lost nine out of its last ten games. Just like they aren’t as good as the team that won eight out of nine earlier in April.
Of course, it would be a lot easier to nod in agreement if more than two regulars were hitting over .257 or if the starting rotation could familiarize itself with the seventh and eighth innings. But things will change. For the better. We hope.
(Imagine the hand-wringing if the team was scoring runs in bunches and still losing.)
One reason for O’s fans to get excited is that despite the Ruthian performance of Alex Rodriguez in April, an astonishing 14 home runs and 35 RBI – the Yankees still have a losing record. The last-place Yankees, no less.
As poorly as the Birds are playing, the Bronx Bombers are playing even worse. At least we can take comfort in the Yankees’ misfortune. Here are some other reasons to look on the bright side for the rest of the season, countered by equally compelling evidence to throw in the towel.
The Glass Is Half Full:
The Orioles are ahead of the last-place Yankees in the standings.
The Glass Is Half Empty:
The Orioles are only percentage points out of last place. And the Devil Rays jumped ahead of them in the standings with a dramatic extra-inning victory over Joe Nathan and the Twins Wednesday night.
The Glass Is Half Full:
Erik Bedard will not finish the season with a 6.09 ERA, his current mark.
The Glass Is Half Empty:
Erik Bedard, the team ace, has a 6.09 ERA.
The Glass Is Half Full:
Maybe Steve Trachsel isn’t nearly as bad as we thought. He went seven innings Wednesday afternoon, has pitched the second-most innings and has the second-best ERA among starters.
The Glass Is Half Empty:
Steve Trachsel is the good news? Before Wednesday, a starter had not lasted 7 innings since April 12, a span of 18 games. And who pitched April 12? Steve Trachsel!
The Glass Is Half Full:
Orioles pitchers lead the league in strikeouts, with 209. Only three other teams have more than 180.
The Glass Is Half Empty:
They lead the league in walks, too. Apparently, Daniel Cabrera’s case of the walks is highly contagious. Adam Loewen has handed out 26 free passes in 30 innings.
The Glass Is Half Full:
Nick Markakis is batting .239. That’s heads and shoulders above his April last year. That must mean his second half, like last year, will be a monster.
The Glass Is Half Empty:
Aubrey Huff, Corey Patterson, Jay Gibbons and Kevin Millar all have lower batting averages than Markakis. Before the season started, when Huff marveled at the balance of the lineup, do you think this is what he meant?
By Christopher Heun
The Orioles have the day off Thursday. But the bullpen will be warming up regardless, just for the sake of routine.
There’s an old baseball adage that says you’re never as good as when you win, and likewise you’re never as bad as when you lose. We’re going to lean on that heavily as we consider the O’s performance so far this season.
The good news about this year’s Birds is they’re not as bad as the team that’s lost nine out of its last ten games. Just like they aren’t as good as the team that won eight out of nine earlier in April.
Of course, it would be a lot easier to nod in agreement if more than two regulars were hitting over .257 or if the starting rotation could familiarize itself with the seventh and eighth innings. But things will change. For the better. We hope.
(Imagine the hand-wringing if the team was scoring runs in bunches and still losing.)
One reason for O’s fans to get excited is that despite the Ruthian performance of Alex Rodriguez in April, an astonishing 14 home runs and 35 RBI – the Yankees still have a losing record. The last-place Yankees, no less.
As poorly as the Birds are playing, the Bronx Bombers are playing even worse. At least we can take comfort in the Yankees’ misfortune. Here are some other reasons to look on the bright side for the rest of the season, countered by equally compelling evidence to throw in the towel.
The Glass Is Half Full:
The Orioles are ahead of the last-place Yankees in the standings.
The Glass Is Half Empty:
The Orioles are only percentage points out of last place. And the Devil Rays jumped ahead of them in the standings with a dramatic extra-inning victory over Joe Nathan and the Twins Wednesday night.
The Glass Is Half Full:
Erik Bedard will not finish the season with a 6.09 ERA, his current mark.
The Glass Is Half Empty:
Erik Bedard, the team ace, has a 6.09 ERA.
The Glass Is Half Full:
Maybe Steve Trachsel isn’t nearly as bad as we thought. He went seven innings Wednesday afternoon, has pitched the second-most innings and has the second-best ERA among starters.
The Glass Is Half Empty:
Steve Trachsel is the good news? Before Wednesday, a starter had not lasted 7 innings since April 12, a span of 18 games. And who pitched April 12? Steve Trachsel!
The Glass Is Half Full:
Orioles pitchers lead the league in strikeouts, with 209. Only three other teams have more than 180.
The Glass Is Half Empty:
They lead the league in walks, too. Apparently, Daniel Cabrera’s case of the walks is highly contagious. Adam Loewen has handed out 26 free passes in 30 innings.
The Glass Is Half Full:
Nick Markakis is batting .239. That’s heads and shoulders above his April last year. That must mean his second half, like last year, will be a monster.
The Glass Is Half Empty:
Aubrey Huff, Corey Patterson, Jay Gibbons and Kevin Millar all have lower batting averages than Markakis. Before the season started, when Huff marveled at the balance of the lineup, do you think this is what he meant?
Tuesday, April 24, 2007
Of Bunts And Good Intentions
Winning (and losing) can be such a drag
By Christopher Heun
Dateline: New York City
The situation: Winning run on third base. Tie game. Two outs. And the batter lays down a bunt just past the reach of the pitcher. Winning run scores. Game over.
That’s how the Mets beat the Rockies Tuesday night in 12 innings. Endy Chavez’s drag bunt made him the hero.
Listening to the game on the radio, I was struck by the dramatic finish because it could have been the exact same outcome for the Orioles the night before, when Melvin Mora tried to bunt home Corey Patterson, the tying run, from third with one out in the bottom of the ninth. Except Mora’s bunt did not get past the pitcher. Patterson could not score. The Birds lost.
It was a good idea – even if Patterson seemed surprised by it – but it didn’t work. Mora's bunt didn't get past A's closer Huston Street, who held Patterson at third. (After an intentional walk to Nick Markakis, Miguel Tejada made the final out of the game.)
It would be easy to draw grand conclusions about the larger fates of the Mets and O's based on this one game. That’s probably not fair. But still, one of these teams is a playoff contender while the other is not.
The Mets won a game with a pinch-hit homer in the 10th by Damian Easley and a bunt single by Chavez, who also had come off the bench, in the 11th. Manager Sam Perlozzo should be so lucky to have such options in the late innings. (And to pull the right strings at just the right time, but that’s another topic for debate.)
By the way, ex-Oriole David Newhan has also found a spot on the Mets’ bench. He had a chance in the 12th too, but struck out.)
Throughout this young season, the Birds have shown a resilient streak and have come from behind to win – something that would not be possible without an improved bullpen that shuts down opposing lineups in the late innings.
But they lost a game on Monday night that they didn’t deserve to win but probably should have won regardless: with runners on second and third with nobody out in the ninth, they failed to score.
Then they followed that disappointment with a poorly played game on Tuesday afternoon filled with more miscommunication and mental mistakes.
With Boston visiting Camden Yards for two games, the Birds could very well sink back to .500 after an impressive winning streak in which they took eight out of nine.
Or maybe not. Maybe Mora redeems himself. I can’t help but think that he may have a doppelganger in Chavez, whose playoff heroics last October in the N.L.C.S. versus St. Louis endeared him to Mets fans much like Mora did during the 1999 postseason.
By Christopher Heun
Dateline: New York City
The situation: Winning run on third base. Tie game. Two outs. And the batter lays down a bunt just past the reach of the pitcher. Winning run scores. Game over.
That’s how the Mets beat the Rockies Tuesday night in 12 innings. Endy Chavez’s drag bunt made him the hero.
Listening to the game on the radio, I was struck by the dramatic finish because it could have been the exact same outcome for the Orioles the night before, when Melvin Mora tried to bunt home Corey Patterson, the tying run, from third with one out in the bottom of the ninth. Except Mora’s bunt did not get past the pitcher. Patterson could not score. The Birds lost.
It was a good idea – even if Patterson seemed surprised by it – but it didn’t work. Mora's bunt didn't get past A's closer Huston Street, who held Patterson at third. (After an intentional walk to Nick Markakis, Miguel Tejada made the final out of the game.)
It would be easy to draw grand conclusions about the larger fates of the Mets and O's based on this one game. That’s probably not fair. But still, one of these teams is a playoff contender while the other is not.
The Mets won a game with a pinch-hit homer in the 10th by Damian Easley and a bunt single by Chavez, who also had come off the bench, in the 11th. Manager Sam Perlozzo should be so lucky to have such options in the late innings. (And to pull the right strings at just the right time, but that’s another topic for debate.)
By the way, ex-Oriole David Newhan has also found a spot on the Mets’ bench. He had a chance in the 12th too, but struck out.)
Throughout this young season, the Birds have shown a resilient streak and have come from behind to win – something that would not be possible without an improved bullpen that shuts down opposing lineups in the late innings.
But they lost a game on Monday night that they didn’t deserve to win but probably should have won regardless: with runners on second and third with nobody out in the ninth, they failed to score.
Then they followed that disappointment with a poorly played game on Tuesday afternoon filled with more miscommunication and mental mistakes.
With Boston visiting Camden Yards for two games, the Birds could very well sink back to .500 after an impressive winning streak in which they took eight out of nine.
Or maybe not. Maybe Mora redeems himself. I can’t help but think that he may have a doppelganger in Chavez, whose playoff heroics last October in the N.L.C.S. versus St. Louis endeared him to Mets fans much like Mora did during the 1999 postseason.
Tuesday, April 17, 2007
Jinxing the Pen?
by Matthew Taylor
On April 7, after the O's bullpen shut down the Yankees to secure a 6-4 win in the Bronx, the verdict was in: the Birds had made a wise investment.
The Washington Post, among other news outlets, heralded the team's off-season manuevering, as witnessed by the headline of the paper's game story: "Yankees Are Left Penned Up By O's."
We all know what happened next.
Last night the bullpen turned in another fine performance, and The Sun's John Eisenberg is fêting the team in a column headlined, "So far, Orioles right on money with their revamped bullpen."
Cue the Delmon Young heroics.
On April 7, after the O's bullpen shut down the Yankees to secure a 6-4 win in the Bronx, the verdict was in: the Birds had made a wise investment.
The Washington Post, among other news outlets, heralded the team's off-season manuevering, as witnessed by the headline of the paper's game story: "Yankees Are Left Penned Up By O's."
We all know what happened next.
Last night the bullpen turned in another fine performance, and The Sun's John Eisenberg is fêting the team in a column headlined, "So far, Orioles right on money with their revamped bullpen."
Cue the Delmon Young heroics.
Monday, April 09, 2007
100 Words or Less About ... The Yankees Series
By Matthew Taylor
Our second round of "100 Words or Less" reviews the weekend series in the Bronx.
Last time we used corporate speak to dissect the O's off-season. This time we use the Yankees' very own postgame anthem - an abuse of Sinatra's work, if you ask me - to break down the action.
100 Words or Less starts ... now:
"Start spreading the news, the O’s left town yesterday, with a series win in New York, New York. Loewen and Bedard were a part of it, as was Bako (homering for the first time since 2004). Chris Ray woke up on Sunday in a city where he couldn’t sleep, but he made a brand new start of it in old New York. The Birds season-opening blues seem to be melting away. They aren’t 'A Number One,' 'Top of the List,' or 'King of the Hill' in the AL East, but if they can win up there, they can win anywhere."
Final Count: 100 Words Even. Mission Accomplished.
See you next time on "100 Words or Less."
Our second round of "100 Words or Less" reviews the weekend series in the Bronx.
Last time we used corporate speak to dissect the O's off-season. This time we use the Yankees' very own postgame anthem - an abuse of Sinatra's work, if you ask me - to break down the action.
100 Words or Less starts ... now:
"Start spreading the news, the O’s left town yesterday, with a series win in New York, New York. Loewen and Bedard were a part of it, as was Bako (homering for the first time since 2004). Chris Ray woke up on Sunday in a city where he couldn’t sleep, but he made a brand new start of it in old New York. The Birds season-opening blues seem to be melting away. They aren’t 'A Number One,' 'Top of the List,' or 'King of the Hill' in the AL East, but if they can win up there, they can win anywhere."
Final Count: 100 Words Even. Mission Accomplished.
See you next time on "100 Words or Less."
Good Seats Still Available
By Matthew Taylor
How can a longtime Orioles fan be such a novice when it comes to Opening Day tickets?
The Birds have a "Buy Tickets" link today on the front page of the team website, which just a week ago offered no such option. A quick check reveals that scattered singles are still available ($45 Lower Box and $30 LF Lower Box, for example). Meanwhile, multiple standing room tickets are up for grabs. Not a bad option for $8, especially if they utilize the temporary bleachers.
Also from the O's website, fans will give new meaning to "Buy me some peanuts and Cracker Jacks" this afternoon: "Concession stands are estimating serving 10,500 hot dogs, 3,500 soft pretzels, 1,650 gallons of soda, 2,800 bags of peanuts, 3,000 pounds of French fries and 400 bags of Cracker Jacks."
Why am I sitting in my office today? I think I feel a bout of illness coming on.
How can a longtime Orioles fan be such a novice when it comes to Opening Day tickets?
The Birds have a "Buy Tickets" link today on the front page of the team website, which just a week ago offered no such option. A quick check reveals that scattered singles are still available ($45 Lower Box and $30 LF Lower Box, for example). Meanwhile, multiple standing room tickets are up for grabs. Not a bad option for $8, especially if they utilize the temporary bleachers.
Also from the O's website, fans will give new meaning to "Buy me some peanuts and Cracker Jacks" this afternoon: "Concession stands are estimating serving 10,500 hot dogs, 3,500 soft pretzels, 1,650 gallons of soda, 2,800 bags of peanuts, 3,000 pounds of French fries and 400 bags of Cracker Jacks."
Why am I sitting in my office today? I think I feel a bout of illness coming on.
Saturday, April 07, 2007
Former Birds in the Box Scores
By Matthew Taylor
Former Birds are all over the box scores for Friday night:
-In Cincinnati, the always likeable Jeff Conine hit a three-run homer in a 6-1 Reds victory over the Pirates. The hit came one night after Conine had a "game-tying pinch-hit single and scored the go-ahead run against the Cubs."
-In Tampa, former O's closer B.J. Ryan gave up three earned runs in two-thirds of an inning, including a two-run homer to Delmon Young, as the Blue Jays coughed one up against the Devil Rays, 6-5. Wonder if Ryan noticed what Baltimore's bullpen did in the Bronx.
-In Texas, the always-powerful Sammy Sosa got an excuse-me RBI, his first of the season, on a check swing against the Red Sox. Rangers 2 - Red Sox 0.
-And, of course, in New York, Mike Mussina gave up six earned runs in four innings as the good guys took down the Evil Empire, 6-4.
Former Birds are all over the box scores for Friday night:
-In Cincinnati, the always likeable Jeff Conine hit a three-run homer in a 6-1 Reds victory over the Pirates. The hit came one night after Conine had a "game-tying pinch-hit single and scored the go-ahead run against the Cubs."
-In Tampa, former O's closer B.J. Ryan gave up three earned runs in two-thirds of an inning, including a two-run homer to Delmon Young, as the Blue Jays coughed one up against the Devil Rays, 6-5. Wonder if Ryan noticed what Baltimore's bullpen did in the Bronx.
-In Texas, the always-powerful Sammy Sosa got an excuse-me RBI, his first of the season, on a check swing against the Red Sox. Rangers 2 - Red Sox 0.
-And, of course, in New York, Mike Mussina gave up six earned runs in four innings as the good guys took down the Evil Empire, 6-4.
Friday, April 06, 2007
Our Electrical Contraption of Prognostication Is Smarter Than Yours
After three games, have the statheads won?
By Christopher Heun
The statheads have done their voodoo math tricks and predicted the future that is the 2007 baseball season, including the mean height that the grass in foul territory in every ballpark will grow, normalized to the respective league average, of course.
We here at RF34 have also crunched some numbers. Whatever numbers we could find lying around: we picked up a 10 and carried a two and that was pretty much it.
The statheads at Baseball Prospectus and elsewhere have shared their predictions (basically, that the Orioles will finish last in the A.L. East), and we’re prepared to do the same. (Basically, we disagree, but not by a whole heckuva lot.) In fact, we’ll be so bold as to throw down the gauntlet: let this season be the battle royal, the final test of good old-fashioned love of the game that our fathers taught us versus newfangled progressive attitudes open to understanding baseball in new ways, reportedly involving statistics and other such figures.
If, at the end of the season, Pecota is right, we’ll stop taking cheap shots at statheads. (For the purposes of this exercise Pecota shall represent all forecasting formulas. We’ve heard of others out there – Chone, Marcel and ZiPS, but really, we can’t be bothered, except to ask, who names this stuff?) If, however, our prophecy turns out to be closer to the final standings, then we’ll sign a sponsorship deal for the new Texas Instruments scientific calculator.
Since we are an amiable sort and wish to make all of our guests comfortable, regardless of who wins this final test of wits, any reader of this blog who professes an affinity for the world of statistics shall retain the right to get his hackles up after encountering harmless commentary posted here. (As one anonymous poster did recently, referring to us collectively a “judgemental prick.”)
Now that we have that out of the way, on to the magic number . . . 79.
That’s how many wins we believe the Orioles will manage this season. We were going to say the O’s will finish 80-82, a sort of poetic near-miss at mediocrity in a Bad News Bears sort of way, but then we read two different baseball writers for The Sun, Peter Schmuck and Roch Kubatko, both predict the team would win 78 games, so we took that into consideration. We like to think of ourselves as one better than those guys.
For the record, Pecota predicts last place for the Birds, with a 74-88 record, four games behind Tampa. We say the Orioles will actually be five games better than the Devils Rays.
Why do we think this, and how can we state this with any certainty? Because it’s what we want to happen. We admit it. Pecota's forecasting system runs on pure numbers and unbiased algorithms. Our prediction engine is fueled by a careful balance of hope, faith, and blind intuition.
Admittedly, we’re not taking much of a risk, given that the O’s (as we all know) have finished in fourth place eight of the last nine seasons.
This is a club that has a chance to be average. It could very well end up at exactly .500 – neither winners nor losers. Imagine that. We should be so lucky.
But just as a .500 season is within reach, it is equally as possible that the Birds will finish in the cellar. I’m tired of listing the reasons why; we all know them by now. One additional reason, given frequently this spring, is all of the Devil Rays' potential – and this time the sportswriters, and the scouts, and everybody else really mean it.
True, the Rays are loaded with young talent. But the one thing that Rocco Baldelli, Carl Crawford, Elijah Dukes, and Delmon Young can’t do is pitch.
With a starting rotation of Jae Seo, James Shields, Casey Fossum, and Edwin Jackson following Scott Kazmir, how can anyone realistically expect Tampa Bay to win 17 games more than they did a year ago? Tampa Bay has never lost fewer than 91 games in a season; last year their record was 61-101.
Even if Tampa doesn’t finish ahead of the Birds this season, it will probably happen soon enough. There simply isn’t enough talent in the upper tiers of the Orioles farm system to match what clubs like Tampa are producing. Last month the O’s traded their 2006 minor league player of the year, Cory Keylor, for a 37-year-old journeyman catcher with 11 career home runs. Enough said.
All is not lost, though. The Blue Jays haven’t got it all figured out, either. Their three starters who will follow Roy Halladay and A. J. Burnett – Gustavo Chacin, Tomo Ohka and Josh Towers, according to mlb.com – combined last season for a 5.81 E.R.A. in 246 innings, allowing 281 hits and 48 home runs. Where’s Russ Ortiz when you need him?
So here’s the final verdict: the Birds will win more games than last year but still finish below .500 and still finish in fourth place. That’s the karma of a bad ball club. They’ll be marginally better (though not for the long haul), but still be bad. Still a loser. Still a joke.
Unfortunately, it doesn’t take a whole lot of numbers to see that.
By Christopher Heun
The statheads have done their voodoo math tricks and predicted the future that is the 2007 baseball season, including the mean height that the grass in foul territory in every ballpark will grow, normalized to the respective league average, of course.
We here at RF34 have also crunched some numbers. Whatever numbers we could find lying around: we picked up a 10 and carried a two and that was pretty much it.
The statheads at Baseball Prospectus and elsewhere have shared their predictions (basically, that the Orioles will finish last in the A.L. East), and we’re prepared to do the same. (Basically, we disagree, but not by a whole heckuva lot.) In fact, we’ll be so bold as to throw down the gauntlet: let this season be the battle royal, the final test of good old-fashioned love of the game that our fathers taught us versus newfangled progressive attitudes open to understanding baseball in new ways, reportedly involving statistics and other such figures.
If, at the end of the season, Pecota is right, we’ll stop taking cheap shots at statheads. (For the purposes of this exercise Pecota shall represent all forecasting formulas. We’ve heard of others out there – Chone, Marcel and ZiPS, but really, we can’t be bothered, except to ask, who names this stuff?) If, however, our prophecy turns out to be closer to the final standings, then we’ll sign a sponsorship deal for the new Texas Instruments scientific calculator.
Since we are an amiable sort and wish to make all of our guests comfortable, regardless of who wins this final test of wits, any reader of this blog who professes an affinity for the world of statistics shall retain the right to get his hackles up after encountering harmless commentary posted here. (As one anonymous poster did recently, referring to us collectively a “judgemental prick.”)
Now that we have that out of the way, on to the magic number . . . 79.
That’s how many wins we believe the Orioles will manage this season. We were going to say the O’s will finish 80-82, a sort of poetic near-miss at mediocrity in a Bad News Bears sort of way, but then we read two different baseball writers for The Sun, Peter Schmuck and Roch Kubatko, both predict the team would win 78 games, so we took that into consideration. We like to think of ourselves as one better than those guys.
For the record, Pecota predicts last place for the Birds, with a 74-88 record, four games behind Tampa. We say the Orioles will actually be five games better than the Devils Rays.
Why do we think this, and how can we state this with any certainty? Because it’s what we want to happen. We admit it. Pecota's forecasting system runs on pure numbers and unbiased algorithms. Our prediction engine is fueled by a careful balance of hope, faith, and blind intuition.
Admittedly, we’re not taking much of a risk, given that the O’s (as we all know) have finished in fourth place eight of the last nine seasons.
This is a club that has a chance to be average. It could very well end up at exactly .500 – neither winners nor losers. Imagine that. We should be so lucky.
But just as a .500 season is within reach, it is equally as possible that the Birds will finish in the cellar. I’m tired of listing the reasons why; we all know them by now. One additional reason, given frequently this spring, is all of the Devil Rays' potential – and this time the sportswriters, and the scouts, and everybody else really mean it.
True, the Rays are loaded with young talent. But the one thing that Rocco Baldelli, Carl Crawford, Elijah Dukes, and Delmon Young can’t do is pitch.
With a starting rotation of Jae Seo, James Shields, Casey Fossum, and Edwin Jackson following Scott Kazmir, how can anyone realistically expect Tampa Bay to win 17 games more than they did a year ago? Tampa Bay has never lost fewer than 91 games in a season; last year their record was 61-101.
Even if Tampa doesn’t finish ahead of the Birds this season, it will probably happen soon enough. There simply isn’t enough talent in the upper tiers of the Orioles farm system to match what clubs like Tampa are producing. Last month the O’s traded their 2006 minor league player of the year, Cory Keylor, for a 37-year-old journeyman catcher with 11 career home runs. Enough said.
All is not lost, though. The Blue Jays haven’t got it all figured out, either. Their three starters who will follow Roy Halladay and A. J. Burnett – Gustavo Chacin, Tomo Ohka and Josh Towers, according to mlb.com – combined last season for a 5.81 E.R.A. in 246 innings, allowing 281 hits and 48 home runs. Where’s Russ Ortiz when you need him?
So here’s the final verdict: the Birds will win more games than last year but still finish below .500 and still finish in fourth place. That’s the karma of a bad ball club. They’ll be marginally better (though not for the long haul), but still be bad. Still a loser. Still a joke.
Unfortunately, it doesn’t take a whole lot of numbers to see that.
Home and Away: O's Blogs vs.Twins Blogs
By Matthew Taylor
It's time to pit the hometown bloggers (Maryland Sports Fan) against the visitors (Right Handed Heat) in this season's inaugural version of "Home and Away."
Baseball bloggers in Baltimore and Minnesota can agree on at least one thing after the first series of the season: the Birds ain't lookin' so hot. But in keeping with the cliché, it's not what you say, but how you say it.
Home: Maryland Sports Fan proclaims "Orioles Suck!" in a recent blog headline, but it's of course said out of love. It reminds me of my favorite O's analyst, my grandfather, who was always delightfully irritated with the Birds.
Maryland Sports Fan offers a reasoned analysis of the team's slow start and examines the individual efforts of Kevin Millar, Chris Gomez, Daniel Cabrera, and Jaret Wright.
Away: The "Twin Cities fanatics" at Right Handed Heat offer a slightly milder conclusion, "The Orioles stink," and add a funny line about the upcoming debut of former Birds hurler Sidney Ponson: "A fine drunk but a lousy pitcher."
Right Handed Heat has to take some heat, however, for using the awful nickname "Boofer" (Boof Bonser) and the decidely unimaginative descriptor "Bitchsox" for their AL Central rival.
Advantage: Maryland Sports Fan. It's root, root, root for the home team in Vol. 1, Issue 1 of "Home and Away."
[See the RF34 "Vide-O Corner" for the insight of a young Birds critic.]
It's time to pit the hometown bloggers (Maryland Sports Fan) against the visitors (Right Handed Heat) in this season's inaugural version of "Home and Away."
Baseball bloggers in Baltimore and Minnesota can agree on at least one thing after the first series of the season: the Birds ain't lookin' so hot. But in keeping with the cliché, it's not what you say, but how you say it.
Home: Maryland Sports Fan proclaims "Orioles Suck!" in a recent blog headline, but it's of course said out of love. It reminds me of my favorite O's analyst, my grandfather, who was always delightfully irritated with the Birds.
Maryland Sports Fan offers a reasoned analysis of the team's slow start and examines the individual efforts of Kevin Millar, Chris Gomez, Daniel Cabrera, and Jaret Wright.
Away: The "Twin Cities fanatics" at Right Handed Heat offer a slightly milder conclusion, "The Orioles stink," and add a funny line about the upcoming debut of former Birds hurler Sidney Ponson: "A fine drunk but a lousy pitcher."
Right Handed Heat has to take some heat, however, for using the awful nickname "Boofer" (Boof Bonser) and the decidely unimaginative descriptor "Bitchsox" for their AL Central rival.
Advantage: Maryland Sports Fan. It's root, root, root for the home team in Vol. 1, Issue 1 of "Home and Away."
[See the RF34 "Vide-O Corner" for the insight of a young Birds critic.]
Sunday, April 01, 2007
Patterson: The New Secretary of Defense
A free agent payday awaits, if only he could hit lefties
By Christopher Heun
A strained hamstring will keep new outfielder Jay Payton out of the opening day lineup in Minnesota against the reigning Cy Young winner, Johan Santana. Could this be an omen for Corey Patterson?
Patterson, who will get to start in center field because of the injury, needs to prove that he can handle left-handed pitchers after hitting just .207 against them in 2006. This will be an important season for him. A free agent next year, his chance for a big payday depends on how decisively he can shed the tag of a part-time player.
That seems to be what the Orioles have concluded about him. A big reason they signed Payton this winter was for his right-handed bat that could spell Patterson against southpaws. Now that Payton has been injured before the season even starts, Patterson has one last shot to play everyday, even if it’s only for a short period.
Next winter, the Orioles, along with a bunch of other clubs, will be asking themselves: how good is Patterson? Is he the player who hit .276 last year with a .757 OPS (slightly below league average)? Or is he the power threat who slugged .511 in 329 at-bats in 2003? The No. 3 pick in the 1998 draft, Patterson has always drawn raves for his physical tools, but he’s never managed to put it all together on the field.
Some seasons he’s been truly awful. The lesser Corey Patterson, the one who played his way out of Chicago in 2005, hit a measly .215 with an OPS of .602 – probably the worst hitter in the major leagues that season.
His defense and speed have never been questioned. He stole a career high 45 bases last year while flashing an outstanding glove in center field. Chris Dial at Baseball Think Factory, posting defensive stats that ranked the Orioles centerfielder as the best in the American League in 2006, wrote that Patterson is “climbing the charts as one of the top defensive CFs over the last 20 years.”
Patterson is a lifetime .229 hitter vs. lefties (and .266 vs. righties). Subtract his wasted at-bats against southpaws and last year he hit .301 with a .826 OPS in 342 at-bats. Not bad. Pair it with a right-handed hitter who can hold his own (for comparison’s sake, Payton posted an .817 OPS vs. lefties in 2006), and you’ve got a decent platoon. Not quite Roenicke-Lowenstein, but nothing to sneeze at, either.
Of course, Patterson insists he should play every day and points out that he actually hit better against lefties than righties in 2004; an adequate .819 OPS. "It's all about repetition; the more you do it, the better you get at it,” he told the Associated Press recently. His splits weren’t dramatically different in 2003 but overall, his career stats show a clear weakness against southpaws.
Should he put together a decent 2007 with the bat, Patterson could be in for a fat contract next winter given the deals handed out this off-season to some other center fielders of dubious skill.
Two of the most egregious: the Angels gave Gary Matthews Jr. $50 million over five years after a career year in which Matthew hit .313 with 19 homers and a .866 OPS. The Dodgers, meanwhile, handed Juan Pierre $44 million for five years after Pierre hit .326 with three homers (and 45 steals while getting caught 24 times) and a .781 OPS.
At this rate, Patterson will get at least 8 million per year as long as he can sign his own name.
Based on the OPS+ stat on baseball-reference.com, (which rates players’ on-base percentage plus slugging percentage compared to the league average) Matthews, Pierre and Patterson are all below average hitters for their careers.
Career OPS+ (100 is average)
Matthews: 96
Pierre: 86
Patterson: 84
Last year was the only season Pierre put up an OPS+ greater than 100; it was 107. Patterson has managed it just once, too, in 2003 (.116). If Patterson could manage to get on base just a little bit more frequently than in the past, he might be able to convince Dodgers GM Ned Coletti to give him $10 million a year.
One thing Patterson, at 27, has in his favor is his age. He’s five years younger than Matthews and 2 years Pierre’s junior.
Patterson has another (admittedly convoluted) connection to Matthews. Not Gary Jr., but his dad. When the elder Matthews, known as “Sarge,“ played for the Phillies, (he was a member of the 1983 team that lost in the World Series to the O’s), one of his
teammates, Gary Maddox, earned the nickname, “The Secretary of Defense,” for his glove work in the outfield.
Phillies announcer Harry Kalas used to say, "Two-thirds of the Earth is covered by water. The rest is covered by Garry Maddox."
The same could be true of Corey Patterson.
By Christopher Heun
A strained hamstring will keep new outfielder Jay Payton out of the opening day lineup in Minnesota against the reigning Cy Young winner, Johan Santana. Could this be an omen for Corey Patterson?
Patterson, who will get to start in center field because of the injury, needs to prove that he can handle left-handed pitchers after hitting just .207 against them in 2006. This will be an important season for him. A free agent next year, his chance for a big payday depends on how decisively he can shed the tag of a part-time player.
That seems to be what the Orioles have concluded about him. A big reason they signed Payton this winter was for his right-handed bat that could spell Patterson against southpaws. Now that Payton has been injured before the season even starts, Patterson has one last shot to play everyday, even if it’s only for a short period.
Next winter, the Orioles, along with a bunch of other clubs, will be asking themselves: how good is Patterson? Is he the player who hit .276 last year with a .757 OPS (slightly below league average)? Or is he the power threat who slugged .511 in 329 at-bats in 2003? The No. 3 pick in the 1998 draft, Patterson has always drawn raves for his physical tools, but he’s never managed to put it all together on the field.
Some seasons he’s been truly awful. The lesser Corey Patterson, the one who played his way out of Chicago in 2005, hit a measly .215 with an OPS of .602 – probably the worst hitter in the major leagues that season.
His defense and speed have never been questioned. He stole a career high 45 bases last year while flashing an outstanding glove in center field. Chris Dial at Baseball Think Factory, posting defensive stats that ranked the Orioles centerfielder as the best in the American League in 2006, wrote that Patterson is “climbing the charts as one of the top defensive CFs over the last 20 years.”
Patterson is a lifetime .229 hitter vs. lefties (and .266 vs. righties). Subtract his wasted at-bats against southpaws and last year he hit .301 with a .826 OPS in 342 at-bats. Not bad. Pair it with a right-handed hitter who can hold his own (for comparison’s sake, Payton posted an .817 OPS vs. lefties in 2006), and you’ve got a decent platoon. Not quite Roenicke-Lowenstein, but nothing to sneeze at, either.
Of course, Patterson insists he should play every day and points out that he actually hit better against lefties than righties in 2004; an adequate .819 OPS. "It's all about repetition; the more you do it, the better you get at it,” he told the Associated Press recently. His splits weren’t dramatically different in 2003 but overall, his career stats show a clear weakness against southpaws.
Should he put together a decent 2007 with the bat, Patterson could be in for a fat contract next winter given the deals handed out this off-season to some other center fielders of dubious skill.
Two of the most egregious: the Angels gave Gary Matthews Jr. $50 million over five years after a career year in which Matthew hit .313 with 19 homers and a .866 OPS. The Dodgers, meanwhile, handed Juan Pierre $44 million for five years after Pierre hit .326 with three homers (and 45 steals while getting caught 24 times) and a .781 OPS.
At this rate, Patterson will get at least 8 million per year as long as he can sign his own name.
Based on the OPS+ stat on baseball-reference.com, (which rates players’ on-base percentage plus slugging percentage compared to the league average) Matthews, Pierre and Patterson are all below average hitters for their careers.
Career OPS+ (100 is average)
Matthews: 96
Pierre: 86
Patterson: 84
Last year was the only season Pierre put up an OPS+ greater than 100; it was 107. Patterson has managed it just once, too, in 2003 (.116). If Patterson could manage to get on base just a little bit more frequently than in the past, he might be able to convince Dodgers GM Ned Coletti to give him $10 million a year.
One thing Patterson, at 27, has in his favor is his age. He’s five years younger than Matthews and 2 years Pierre’s junior.
Patterson has another (admittedly convoluted) connection to Matthews. Not Gary Jr., but his dad. When the elder Matthews, known as “Sarge,“ played for the Phillies, (he was a member of the 1983 team that lost in the World Series to the O’s), one of his
teammates, Gary Maddox, earned the nickname, “The Secretary of Defense,” for his glove work in the outfield.
Phillies announcer Harry Kalas used to say, "Two-thirds of the Earth is covered by water. The rest is covered by Garry Maddox."
The same could be true of Corey Patterson.
Monday, March 26, 2007
SI's Best of the Blog-O's-phere
Kudos to fellow O's bloggers Camden Chat, Oriole Post, and The Orioles Warehouse for being featured (along with Roch Kubato's blog for The Sun) in Sports Illustrated's baseball preview. The magazine, which will include stories from each of the blogs as part of its Orioles team page/aggregator, is asking readers to vote which site has the best Orioles info. You can get in on the action at SI.com/oriolesvote.
Friday, March 23, 2007
Even More Useless Preseason Facts
(But mostly just opinions); springtime brings it out in us
By Christopher Heun
The best part of spring training is that the losses don’t really count while the wins, on the other hand, give everyone a reason to indulge their powers of positive thinking. There’s plenty of time to sit around and get your hopes up.
Why else would pitchers like Sidney Ponson and Steve Trachsel still be allowed to take the mound for a major league team? Only in spring training would anyone still think either of them has something left in the tank. As Opening Day draws near, the future of those two pitchers, and a couple other possible Orioles roster moves, fill us with wonder. Wonder being a polite way of saying "total confusion and disappointment."
1. Our biggest question: who will last longer in the major leagues this season, Trachsel or Ponson? Trachsel, signed by the Orioles to replace the injured Kris Benson, will likely fare this season about as well as Sir Sidney circa 2004-05. Sometime in June, Hayden Penn (or possibly Jeremy Guthrie?) will take his spot in the rotation.
Unfortunately, Trachsel looks like he’s the latest in what’s becoming a long line of National League pitchers (Mike DeJean in 2004, Steve Reed in 2005, Jim Brower in 2006) who sign with the O’s and immediately start tossing batting practice.
Meanwhile, Ponson -- who is trying to hook on this spring with the Twins, his fourth organization in the last 19 months -- could be wearing a Devil Rays uniform by the All-Star break. Or better yet, the pitching-starved Nationals may give him a shot.
That DC scenario would be particularly ironic, given Ponson’s comments last weekend when he brushed off the Baltimore media – but not before firing off a zinger within earshot of Sun reporters that “Baltimore fans have no clue what baseball is all about.”
By now, pretty much anything anyone could possibly say (good or bad) about Sidney has been said; he’s at the end of the road and probably deserving of some sympathy, if only he could keep his mouth shut long enough to listen to his few remaining supporters.
Nevertheless, in the middle of his dig at Baltimore he managed to squeeze in this odd observation: "The old Baltimore fans over on 33rd Street [Memorial Stadium], that's true baseball fans."
Say it again, Sidney! Forget for a moment the divine truth of his statement, or how much he sounds like some guy, late at night, at the end of a bar in Pigtown. How would Sid know about the crowds on 33rd Street? He was just 14 years old on Oct.6, 1991, when the Orioles played their last game at Memorial Stadium.
You’ve got to give him credit for knowing a little Orioles history. But on the other hand, shouldn’t anybody who pays to see the Orioles these days be considered a true fan?
2. While we’re on the topic of roster moves, why is Kevin Millar still playing for the Orioles? Never mind the glut of mediocre first baseman/designated hitters on the roster; because they re-signed Millar before the Rule V draft, there was no room on the 40-man roster to protect Josh Phelps, who’d they’d signed to a minor league contract.
The result: the Yankees swiped Phelps and the Orioles were embarrassed by their mistake. You’d think they would have learned their lesson, since the very same situation occurred with Chris Gomez in December 2004. After signing him to a minor league deal but leaving him unprotected, the O’s had to buy Gomez back from the Phillies, who chose him in the Rule V draft.
True, Josh Phelps will not mean the difference between a winning and losing season, but given 400 at-bats he would show more pop than Millar.
3. How many members of the 2004 Atlanta Braves rotation can we dress in an Orioles uniform?
Fox Sport’s Ken Rosenthal reports that the Blue Jays may release starter John Thomson (if they can’t trade him first) after signing him as a free agent over the winter. That the Jays would choose Josh Towers instead for their rotation doesn’t say much about Thomson, but he did have some success a few years ago in Atlanta with pitching coach Leo Mazzone.
So, Thomson might be worth a look if Trachsel falters and Penn isn’t ready. The Orioles tried Russ Ortiz last summer based on the same logic, and that worked out great, so why not try it again? When Jaret Wright was acquired over the winter, his previous success with Mazzone in Atlanta was cited as an extra reason why the deal made sense.
Interesting bonus fact about Rosenthal: Google Ken Rosenthal and what should appear as the #2 search result (just after his writer archive at Fox) is a link to “What are the Orioles Thinking?”an article he wrote last November after the guys in the Warehouse played Extreme Makeover: Home Edition with their bullpen. (Or was it a lost episode of "Who Wants to Be a Millionaire"?)
The Rosenthal verdict: “Over the next three years, it's possible that the Orioles would get comparable performance from less expensive relievers.” Yes, it’s possible – until you consider that those less expensive relievers would be the likes of Kurt Birkins, Sendy Rleal, and Jim Hoey, all of whom could probably benefit from more seasoning in the minors.
By the way, we’ve said our piece about Rosenthal before.
By Christopher Heun
The best part of spring training is that the losses don’t really count while the wins, on the other hand, give everyone a reason to indulge their powers of positive thinking. There’s plenty of time to sit around and get your hopes up.
Why else would pitchers like Sidney Ponson and Steve Trachsel still be allowed to take the mound for a major league team? Only in spring training would anyone still think either of them has something left in the tank. As Opening Day draws near, the future of those two pitchers, and a couple other possible Orioles roster moves, fill us with wonder. Wonder being a polite way of saying "total confusion and disappointment."
1. Our biggest question: who will last longer in the major leagues this season, Trachsel or Ponson? Trachsel, signed by the Orioles to replace the injured Kris Benson, will likely fare this season about as well as Sir Sidney circa 2004-05. Sometime in June, Hayden Penn (or possibly Jeremy Guthrie?) will take his spot in the rotation.
Unfortunately, Trachsel looks like he’s the latest in what’s becoming a long line of National League pitchers (Mike DeJean in 2004, Steve Reed in 2005, Jim Brower in 2006) who sign with the O’s and immediately start tossing batting practice.
Meanwhile, Ponson -- who is trying to hook on this spring with the Twins, his fourth organization in the last 19 months -- could be wearing a Devil Rays uniform by the All-Star break. Or better yet, the pitching-starved Nationals may give him a shot.
That DC scenario would be particularly ironic, given Ponson’s comments last weekend when he brushed off the Baltimore media – but not before firing off a zinger within earshot of Sun reporters that “Baltimore fans have no clue what baseball is all about.”
By now, pretty much anything anyone could possibly say (good or bad) about Sidney has been said; he’s at the end of the road and probably deserving of some sympathy, if only he could keep his mouth shut long enough to listen to his few remaining supporters.
Nevertheless, in the middle of his dig at Baltimore he managed to squeeze in this odd observation: "The old Baltimore fans over on 33rd Street [Memorial Stadium], that's true baseball fans."
Say it again, Sidney! Forget for a moment the divine truth of his statement, or how much he sounds like some guy, late at night, at the end of a bar in Pigtown. How would Sid know about the crowds on 33rd Street? He was just 14 years old on Oct.6, 1991, when the Orioles played their last game at Memorial Stadium.
You’ve got to give him credit for knowing a little Orioles history. But on the other hand, shouldn’t anybody who pays to see the Orioles these days be considered a true fan?
2. While we’re on the topic of roster moves, why is Kevin Millar still playing for the Orioles? Never mind the glut of mediocre first baseman/designated hitters on the roster; because they re-signed Millar before the Rule V draft, there was no room on the 40-man roster to protect Josh Phelps, who’d they’d signed to a minor league contract.
The result: the Yankees swiped Phelps and the Orioles were embarrassed by their mistake. You’d think they would have learned their lesson, since the very same situation occurred with Chris Gomez in December 2004. After signing him to a minor league deal but leaving him unprotected, the O’s had to buy Gomez back from the Phillies, who chose him in the Rule V draft.
True, Josh Phelps will not mean the difference between a winning and losing season, but given 400 at-bats he would show more pop than Millar.
3. How many members of the 2004 Atlanta Braves rotation can we dress in an Orioles uniform?
Fox Sport’s Ken Rosenthal reports that the Blue Jays may release starter John Thomson (if they can’t trade him first) after signing him as a free agent over the winter. That the Jays would choose Josh Towers instead for their rotation doesn’t say much about Thomson, but he did have some success a few years ago in Atlanta with pitching coach Leo Mazzone.
So, Thomson might be worth a look if Trachsel falters and Penn isn’t ready. The Orioles tried Russ Ortiz last summer based on the same logic, and that worked out great, so why not try it again? When Jaret Wright was acquired over the winter, his previous success with Mazzone in Atlanta was cited as an extra reason why the deal made sense.
Interesting bonus fact about Rosenthal: Google Ken Rosenthal and what should appear as the #2 search result (just after his writer archive at Fox) is a link to “What are the Orioles Thinking?”an article he wrote last November after the guys in the Warehouse played Extreme Makeover: Home Edition with their bullpen. (Or was it a lost episode of "Who Wants to Be a Millionaire"?)
The Rosenthal verdict: “Over the next three years, it's possible that the Orioles would get comparable performance from less expensive relievers.” Yes, it’s possible – until you consider that those less expensive relievers would be the likes of Kurt Birkins, Sendy Rleal, and Jim Hoey, all of whom could probably benefit from more seasoning in the minors.
By the way, we’ve said our piece about Rosenthal before.
Wednesday, March 07, 2007
Commentary: A Home Run Chase for the Ages
A lively winter read stirs musings on the game's greatest sluggers
By Christopher Heun
Little imagination is required to envision the greatest home run hitter of a generation, in the twilight of his career and just one rung from the top of the record book, frustrated by nagging reporters, haunted by angry fans rooting against him and ignored by the commissioner of baseball, who would decline to attend the record-breaking night.
Sounds like the life of Barry Bonds this season as he whacks his way toward home run 756 to surpass Hank Aaron as the new home run king. (He needs just 22 more). But it’s also the same environment that Aaron himself confronted in April 1974 when a new season began with him just one home run short of Babe Ruth’s record.
Aaron’s chase of the Babe is beautifully told in "Hank Aaron: One For The Record, The Inside Story of Baseball’s Greatest Home Run," George Plimpton’s account of home run 715. I read the book this winter and was struck by the similarities between the circumstances Aaron faced then and Bonds encounters today.
Plimpton, the former editor of The Paris Review who chronicled one of his many exploits, his attempt to pitch against the 1960 National League All Star lineup, in "Out of My League," is a wonderful storyteller and excellent reporter.
He recounts how reporters asked Aaron what seemed to be silly questions about what he had eaten the night before, only to complain they were getting the same answers. “It was pointed out to them that they were asking the same questions,” Plimpton writes. Bonds, no doubt, can relate.
After Aaron hit home run 714 on his first swing of the 1974 season, when the Braves were in Cincinnati, commissioner Bowie Kuhn ordered Aaron to be in lineup the final two games of the series. The Braves, however, wanted to sit their star so that history could be made in front of their home crowd.
Kuhn knew his edict, which the Braves obeyed, made him unpopular in Atlanta. When Aaron did in fact slug 715 at home, Kuhn was delivering a dinner speech in Cleveland. “My presence would be a negative influence on what was supposed to be a positive occasion,” Kuhn had said beforehand.
Chances are, the current commissioner, Bud Selig, also won’t be in the ballpark if Bonds manages to break the record. Bonds, as the Sultan of the Syringe, stained by his past steroid use despite never failing a drug test, mocks Selig and the best interests of baseball that his office has failed to protect. On top of that, Selig, who owned a piece of the Braves before they moved from Milwaukee to Atlanta, is friends with Aaron and if given a choice would probably choose a less controversial player to break the record.
The steroid use, of course, (and not just premium flaxseed oil) is the biggest difference between Aaron and Bonds. But there are more subtle distinctions between the two men.
Aaron never watched 715 land. “As he had done those countless times, he looked toward first base as he ran, dropping his bat neatly just off the base path, and when he saw the exultation of the first-base coach, Jim Busby, he knew for sure that the long chase was over,” Plimpton writes. By contrast, every Bonds homer now is a chance for him to do his best Vogue impersonation and strike a pose in the batter's box.
Listen to Aaron’s father when asked if he had been prepared for the historic moment. “I never paid the record no attention. It slipped up on me like everybody else. Henry was in baseball for work.”
Aaron also was not fussy about his equipment, keeping just a single spare bat on hand. Imagine how many more home runs he might have hit if fortified with the obnoxious arm and elbow pads that Bonds and others of the current generation wear to crowd the plate with impunity.
Among the players on the field April 8, 1974, who watched the historic home run, there is an interesting link to the present: Dusty Baker, Bonds’ future manager, batted fifth for the Braves, behind Aaron. Two future Orioles managers, Davey Johnson and Johnny Oates, played in the game, as did Davey Lopes, who coached for the O’s before a stint as manager of the Brewers. Lee Lacy, who ended his career in Baltimore, pinch hit for Lopes in the game.
Perhaps the most surprising fact I learned from the game’s box score is that Bill Buckner batted second for the Dodgers that night and played left field; he stole 31 bases for the ‘74 Dodgers and then 18 for the ‘85 Red Sox. His moment of infamy would come the following season, hobbled in a pair of high top cleats in Game 6 of the World Series, when he let a ground ball through his legs and Sox fans would have to wait 18 more years for a Series win. But he was speedy once.
Bonds needs 22 homers to ruin the record book. But at least one baseball scribe doesn’t think he will make it this season. FoxSports.com’s Dayn Perry may just be engaging in a little wishful thinking, but he insists that a combination of age (Bonds turns 42 in July), potential for injury, off-field trouble and a lack of protection in the lineup, among other factors, will prevent any fireworks celebrations for the Giants and their star this season.
If Bonds does pass Aaron as baseball’s home run king, I doubt anyone will write a book as skillful as Plimpton’s that captures the moment – and the pressure leading up to it – from so many different perspectives, everyone from the radio announcer to the mascot. The book on Bonds, in one way, has already been written: "Game of Shadows: Barry Bonds, BALCO, and the Steroids Scandal that Rocked Professional Sports."
It could be a few years from now, after Bonds finally retires and the investigations surrounding him – of perjury, money laundering, and income-tax evasion – are resolved, before we reach some perspective on steroids and the accomplishments of those who played before drug testing.
Regardless, we may not ever hear something like this from Bonds. It’s Aaron reflecting on his accomplishment:
By Christopher Heun
Little imagination is required to envision the greatest home run hitter of a generation, in the twilight of his career and just one rung from the top of the record book, frustrated by nagging reporters, haunted by angry fans rooting against him and ignored by the commissioner of baseball, who would decline to attend the record-breaking night.
Sounds like the life of Barry Bonds this season as he whacks his way toward home run 756 to surpass Hank Aaron as the new home run king. (He needs just 22 more). But it’s also the same environment that Aaron himself confronted in April 1974 when a new season began with him just one home run short of Babe Ruth’s record.
Aaron’s chase of the Babe is beautifully told in "Hank Aaron: One For The Record, The Inside Story of Baseball’s Greatest Home Run," George Plimpton’s account of home run 715. I read the book this winter and was struck by the similarities between the circumstances Aaron faced then and Bonds encounters today.
Plimpton, the former editor of The Paris Review who chronicled one of his many exploits, his attempt to pitch against the 1960 National League All Star lineup, in "Out of My League," is a wonderful storyteller and excellent reporter.
He recounts how reporters asked Aaron what seemed to be silly questions about what he had eaten the night before, only to complain they were getting the same answers. “It was pointed out to them that they were asking the same questions,” Plimpton writes. Bonds, no doubt, can relate.
After Aaron hit home run 714 on his first swing of the 1974 season, when the Braves were in Cincinnati, commissioner Bowie Kuhn ordered Aaron to be in lineup the final two games of the series. The Braves, however, wanted to sit their star so that history could be made in front of their home crowd.
Kuhn knew his edict, which the Braves obeyed, made him unpopular in Atlanta. When Aaron did in fact slug 715 at home, Kuhn was delivering a dinner speech in Cleveland. “My presence would be a negative influence on what was supposed to be a positive occasion,” Kuhn had said beforehand.
Chances are, the current commissioner, Bud Selig, also won’t be in the ballpark if Bonds manages to break the record. Bonds, as the Sultan of the Syringe, stained by his past steroid use despite never failing a drug test, mocks Selig and the best interests of baseball that his office has failed to protect. On top of that, Selig, who owned a piece of the Braves before they moved from Milwaukee to Atlanta, is friends with Aaron and if given a choice would probably choose a less controversial player to break the record.
The steroid use, of course, (and not just premium flaxseed oil) is the biggest difference between Aaron and Bonds. But there are more subtle distinctions between the two men.
Aaron never watched 715 land. “As he had done those countless times, he looked toward first base as he ran, dropping his bat neatly just off the base path, and when he saw the exultation of the first-base coach, Jim Busby, he knew for sure that the long chase was over,” Plimpton writes. By contrast, every Bonds homer now is a chance for him to do his best Vogue impersonation and strike a pose in the batter's box.
Listen to Aaron’s father when asked if he had been prepared for the historic moment. “I never paid the record no attention. It slipped up on me like everybody else. Henry was in baseball for work.”
Aaron also was not fussy about his equipment, keeping just a single spare bat on hand. Imagine how many more home runs he might have hit if fortified with the obnoxious arm and elbow pads that Bonds and others of the current generation wear to crowd the plate with impunity.
Among the players on the field April 8, 1974, who watched the historic home run, there is an interesting link to the present: Dusty Baker, Bonds’ future manager, batted fifth for the Braves, behind Aaron. Two future Orioles managers, Davey Johnson and Johnny Oates, played in the game, as did Davey Lopes, who coached for the O’s before a stint as manager of the Brewers. Lee Lacy, who ended his career in Baltimore, pinch hit for Lopes in the game.
Perhaps the most surprising fact I learned from the game’s box score is that Bill Buckner batted second for the Dodgers that night and played left field; he stole 31 bases for the ‘74 Dodgers and then 18 for the ‘85 Red Sox. His moment of infamy would come the following season, hobbled in a pair of high top cleats in Game 6 of the World Series, when he let a ground ball through his legs and Sox fans would have to wait 18 more years for a Series win. But he was speedy once.
Bonds needs 22 homers to ruin the record book. But at least one baseball scribe doesn’t think he will make it this season. FoxSports.com’s Dayn Perry may just be engaging in a little wishful thinking, but he insists that a combination of age (Bonds turns 42 in July), potential for injury, off-field trouble and a lack of protection in the lineup, among other factors, will prevent any fireworks celebrations for the Giants and their star this season.
If Bonds does pass Aaron as baseball’s home run king, I doubt anyone will write a book as skillful as Plimpton’s that captures the moment – and the pressure leading up to it – from so many different perspectives, everyone from the radio announcer to the mascot. The book on Bonds, in one way, has already been written: "Game of Shadows: Barry Bonds, BALCO, and the Steroids Scandal that Rocked Professional Sports."
It could be a few years from now, after Bonds finally retires and the investigations surrounding him – of perjury, money laundering, and income-tax evasion – are resolved, before we reach some perspective on steroids and the accomplishments of those who played before drug testing.
Regardless, we may not ever hear something like this from Bonds. It’s Aaron reflecting on his accomplishment:
“Maybe what I’ve done is make new fans. At first there was a lot of mail from people, older people, who didn’t want me to break Babe Ruth’s record. The young generation took note of that, and supported me. I think they want to relate to me, to see me have a record, not someone their granddad saw play.”
Friday, March 02, 2007
Bird is the Word
A collection of Birds-related quotes from around Spring Training
Compiled by Matthew Taylor
Can you tell me how to get, how to get to Eutaw Street?
Hopefully it's not the cornerstone.
"Just a building block. You don't really put much on it.”
-Steve Trachsel after a rough first outing for the O’s; 3 runs, four hits, one walk .
Neither team is exactly "The King of the World."
"I was watching on the computer as the tickets were being sold and it looked like the Titanic going down. It was amazing."
-Dave Rosenfeld, GM of the Norfolk Admirals, on ticket sales for an O’s – Nats exhibition game at the minor league stadium.
Now that's news: The Angelos family actually has a heart.
‘‘It was amazing to see the quick response ... The Orioles will give him VIP treatment.”
-Erik Scheidhauer, talking about his communication with the Orioles, which resulted in the team granting a spring training trip for his 4-year-old neighbor who has an incurable illness.
B-Rob's Mob Mentality.
“There were days last year where I couldn't even take batting practice because I needed to save some of my bullets for the game.”
-Brian Roberts shares what he learned from last season.
It's nice to know he still cares.
"Of course I'd like to do well against them, any team. But I'd like to do well against them. But I think it's just more anxious to get out there and get the first one out and that's about it."
-John Maine says he’d like to play well against the O’s.
O's pitching makes me nauseous for a different reason.
"I'm sitting there getting nauseous listening to this thing. I kept waiting for him to throw a pitch and just drop on the mound."
-Former Orioles great and current Bowie Pitching Coach Scott McGregor on the snapping scapula of Birds prospect Radhames Liz.
Does this mean Metallica concerts are out as well?
"I have a couple glasses of wine here and there, but I used to go out and drink 20 beers and stay up until 5, 6 o'clock in the morning. I'm in bed, at the latest, by midnight. One o'clock is way past my bedtime."
-Sir Sidney, in a highly quotable newspaper story, says he’s a changed man.
There's no "I" in crap.
"I think this is Kevin's battle. I don't think anyone else really gives a crap."
-Chris Gomez responds to Kevin Millar’s effort to generate a change in the team’s grooming policy.
These days Flanny prefers "Deal or No Deal."
"Actually, 1983 is the last time this organization was really happy. We were so close and loose, smart about the game, beating clubs with more talent. We lost the first game of the '83 ALCS. The next night it's 7:28 p.m. The TV announcers were saying, 'Where are the Orioles? They're not on the field yet. They must be in disarray after losing Game 1.' We were at the door of the clubhouse, packed together, watching 'Wheel of Fortune.' We're yelling, 'Pick a vowel!' Finally, somebody figured out the puzzle and we all barreled out the door."
-Mike Flanagan reminisces about the ’83 O’s.
Coming out swinging.
"If you're in that clubhouse and you don't think this team is vastly different and vastly improved, you're crazy."
-Jim Duquette makes his case for the team’s off-season moves.
Compiled by Matthew Taylor
Can you tell me how to get, how to get to Eutaw Street?
Hopefully it's not the cornerstone.
"Just a building block. You don't really put much on it.”
-Steve Trachsel after a rough first outing for the O’s; 3 runs, four hits, one walk .
Neither team is exactly "The King of the World."
"I was watching on the computer as the tickets were being sold and it looked like the Titanic going down. It was amazing."
-Dave Rosenfeld, GM of the Norfolk Admirals, on ticket sales for an O’s – Nats exhibition game at the minor league stadium.
Now that's news: The Angelos family actually has a heart.
‘‘It was amazing to see the quick response ... The Orioles will give him VIP treatment.”
-Erik Scheidhauer, talking about his communication with the Orioles, which resulted in the team granting a spring training trip for his 4-year-old neighbor who has an incurable illness.
B-Rob's Mob Mentality.
“There were days last year where I couldn't even take batting practice because I needed to save some of my bullets for the game.”
-Brian Roberts shares what he learned from last season.
It's nice to know he still cares.
"Of course I'd like to do well against them, any team. But I'd like to do well against them. But I think it's just more anxious to get out there and get the first one out and that's about it."
-John Maine says he’d like to play well against the O’s.
O's pitching makes me nauseous for a different reason.
"I'm sitting there getting nauseous listening to this thing. I kept waiting for him to throw a pitch and just drop on the mound."
-Former Orioles great and current Bowie Pitching Coach Scott McGregor on the snapping scapula of Birds prospect Radhames Liz.
Does this mean Metallica concerts are out as well?
"I have a couple glasses of wine here and there, but I used to go out and drink 20 beers and stay up until 5, 6 o'clock in the morning. I'm in bed, at the latest, by midnight. One o'clock is way past my bedtime."
-Sir Sidney, in a highly quotable newspaper story, says he’s a changed man.
There's no "I" in crap.
"I think this is Kevin's battle. I don't think anyone else really gives a crap."
-Chris Gomez responds to Kevin Millar’s effort to generate a change in the team’s grooming policy.
These days Flanny prefers "Deal or No Deal."
"Actually, 1983 is the last time this organization was really happy. We were so close and loose, smart about the game, beating clubs with more talent. We lost the first game of the '83 ALCS. The next night it's 7:28 p.m. The TV announcers were saying, 'Where are the Orioles? They're not on the field yet. They must be in disarray after losing Game 1.' We were at the door of the clubhouse, packed together, watching 'Wheel of Fortune.' We're yelling, 'Pick a vowel!' Finally, somebody figured out the puzzle and we all barreled out the door."
-Mike Flanagan reminisces about the ’83 O’s.
Coming out swinging.
"If you're in that clubhouse and you don't think this team is vastly different and vastly improved, you're crazy."
-Jim Duquette makes his case for the team’s off-season moves.
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