The Orioles' Second-Half Record Will Not Matter

Long-suffering Orioles fans will look to the second half of this baseball season for answers to two key questions: 1. Is a winning season on the horizon? and 2. Can the Birds contend in the division within two to three years?

Unfortunately, the team's record after the All-Star break won't provide any real answers to those questions.

Want evidence? Of course you do.

Consider the post-All Star break performances of other franchises with several consecutive losing seasons. Then consider the O's own performance during their current 11-year slide. Both indicators demonstrate that teams on the brink of a breakout year don't show their hand in the second half of the prior season.



It's not just about the Rays

The 2008 ALCS Champion Tampa Bay Rays are the easy baseball metaphor these days, the rags-to-riches example of an "overnight" success story that was actually years in the making. They are what the Orioles strive to be, right down to beating the Red Sox with all the marbles on the table.

So how did the Rays perform after the 2007 All Star break? Just like they did in every other half-season prior before then - not well.

The Rays were 32-43 (.427 win percentage) after the '07 break, an improvement from the 34-53 (.391) mark they posted to start the season but still no great indicator that they would storm the gates of the division's Evil Empires in 2008.

The Rays lost consecutive series to the Red Sox, Yankees, and Blue Jays, respectively, to close out 2007. For the season they were 5-13 against Boston, 8-10 against New York, and 7-11 against the Orioles. The only division opponent who didn't win their season series with the Rays in 2007 was the Blue Jays, who finished 9-9 against Tampa.

One year later the Rays won their season series with Boston (10-8), Baltimore (15-3), and Toronto (11-7). Only the Yankees topped them in '08 (7-11).

You may think the Rays are the only example, but wait ... there's more!

The Detroit Tigers endured 12 straight losing seasons before righting the ship in 2006 and sailing to the World Series. The Tigers' 2005 record after the break was 29-47 (.382). They ended the season by losing five straight and 13 of 17.

The 2005 Brewers finished an even .500 to end a 12-season losing streak. The Brewers' 2004 record after the break was 22-53 (.293). They were 5-15 in their last 20 games.

And the Royals finished 83-79 in 2003 to end a run of nine straight losing seasons. The Royals' 2002 record after the break was 29-48 (.377). They were swept by Cleveland, who finished 74-88, to end the season.

The Orioles may well end their run of losing seasons in 2010. Just don't look to their record after this year's All-Star break for clues that it's going to happen.

But what about us?

You know the Orioles have 11 consecutive losing seasons. You know they slump in August. But do you know how many times they've had a winning record after the break since their last winning season in 1997?

The answer is three. And not one of those seasons (1998, 1999, and 2004) was an indicator of future success.

The 2004 season initially did look like an indicator of good things to come in 2005 when the O's started the latter year 47-40, which gave the team an 88-76 (.537) combined record between the 2004 and 2005 All-Star games. But from Mazzilli to Palmeiro, the Birds imploded for a 74-88 overall record in 2005.

What about 2000? The O's won 8 of their last 11 and swept the Yankees to end the season ... and then lost 98 games in 2001.

Heck, I'll even throw in the 1988 Orioles, whose 107 losses were the most in modern franchise history. The next season - "Why Not?" - they finished 87-75. Who could've seen it coming?

The moral of the story

Whether it's tracking the progress of Brad Bergesen on the mound or Matt Wieters at the dish, there's plenty to be excited about in Birdland for the remainder of 2009. And the games themselves do matter. But don't get discouraged should the O's record come up well short of expectations.

As they say in the financial world, "Past performance is not an indication of future success."




Extra Bases

What's left for the Birds?

The 40-48 O's will play exactly half of their remaining 74 games against teams in the top two of their respective divisions.

Here's how it breaks down:

-20 games against the Yankees and Red Sox.

-10 games against Tigers and White Sox.

-7 games against Angels and Rangers.


Second Half Blues

In 812 post All-Star break games from 1998 through 2008, the Orioles are 347-465 (.427). However, the Birds posted a winning mark in the season's symbolic second half in 1998, 1999, and 2004.

Here's the rundown on the team's second-half record by season:

2008
22-45, .328 winning percentage

2007
31-43, .419 winning percentage

2006
29-43, .403 winning percentage

2005
27-48, .360 winning percentage

2004
41-36, .532 winning percentage

2003
30-41, .423 winning percentage

2002
25-52, .325 winning percentage

2001
23-51, .311 winning percentage

2000
36-40, .474 winning percentage

1999
42-33, .560 winning percentage

1998
41-33, .554 winning percentage

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Checking in with my Orioles Magic 8-Ball

The All-Star Break is a perfect time to check in with my Orioles Magic 8-Ball to see whether it's still speaking the same language that it was prior to the season.

Here's a review of my thoughts and predictions for the Birds in 2009 along with the appropriate Magic 8-Ball responses.



Did see it coming: Matt Wieters promotion to the big club early in the season and lots of associated hype.

Didn't see it coming: Brad Bergesen operating under the radar but still becoming an honest-to-goodness Rookie-of-the-Year candidate. Bergesen is 6-3 at the break with a 3.54 ERA and 10 quality starts in 16 games pitched.

Magic 8-Ball says: "Outlook Good."



Did see it coming: A log-jam in left field including the likes of Felix Pie, Lou Montanez, Ryan Freel, and Luke Scott.

Didn't see it coming: Nolan Reimold taking over the spot, earning June Rookie of the Month honors, and entering the Rookie-of-the-Year conversation before a recent slump.

Magic 8-Ball says: "Cannot Predict Now."



Did see it coming: Lots of at-bats in the designated-hitter spot for Luke Scott. At the break Scott has 180 at-bats and 203 plate appearances as the O's DH.

Didn't see it coming: What Scott has done with those at-bats: .305, 18 HR, 51 RBI, .976 OPS, AL Player of the Week in June after homering in four straight games, seven RBIs against Seattle in July.

Magic 8-Ball says: "It is Decidedly So."



Did see it coming: A scuffling O's rotation.

Didn't see it coming: Jeremy Guthrie's 5.35 ERA.

Magic 8-Ball says: "Outlook Not So Good."



Did see it coming: Adam Jones taking the next step toward becoming a legitimate star.

Didn't see it coming: That there would be an "All" next to the "Star" this season.

Magic 8-Ball response: "It Is Certain."



Did see it coming: A win total in the low-to-mid 70s and a run at the Blue Jays for fourth place.

The Birds (currently 40-48; 36-45 at the season's midway point) are on pace to win 70 or more games and are within shouting distance of the Jays.

Magic 8-Ball Says: "Ask Again Later."

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Flashback Friday: Diamond Jim Gentile's 9 RBI Day

"Everyone has one of those career years. It seemed everything went my way and I was always getting base hits at the right time. When men got on, I was getting base hits."

-Jim Gentile, on his 1961 season.

On Tuesday, Luke Scott tallied 7 RBIs against the Mariners in a 12-4 Orioles victory. Scott's RBI effort was two off the team record, held by former first baseman Jim Gentile. This week's Flashback Friday details Gentile's heavy hitting ways during an outstanding 1961 season when he compiled his best career numbers.



Gentile's record-setting nine RBIs came on May 9, 1961, in a 13-5 victory over the Minnesota Twins. If anyone tells you they were there, they're lying; only 4,514 fans attended the game at Metropolitan Stadium. Gentile finished 2-for-3 with a walk, a sac fly, and - oh, by the way - two grand slams.

Gentile cleared the bases in consecutive innings to start the game; he is one 12 players to hit two grand slams in a game, three of whom are Orioles: Gentile, Frank Robinson (June 26, 1970) and Chris Hoiles (Aug. 14, 1998). He finished the 1961 season with five grand slams, breaking Ernie Bank's 1955 total for the major league record that now belongs to Don Mattingly, who hit six grand slams in 1986.

The player who went by the sobriquet "Diamond Jim" after famed Dodger catcher Roy Campanella called him "a diamond in the rough" during the Dodgers' 1956 tour of Japan batted .302 with 46 home runs, 141 RBIs, and a .423 on-base percentage in 1961. The effort earned the then-27 year old an All-Star berth and third place in the Most Valuable Player vote behind two players who were having pretty decent seasons of their own in 1961: Roger Maris and Mickey Mantle.

"Everyone has one of those career years," said Gentile, in a 1999 Baseball Digest article. "It seemed everything went my way and I was always getting base hits at the right time. When men got on, I was getting base hits."

In 1996, Gentile lost two club records that he established during the 1961 season: most home runs by a left-handed batter (Brady Anderson hit 50 in '96) and most RBIs (Rafael Palmeiro drove in 142 in '96). Nevertheless, Gentile's 1961 surge produced two records that still stand: most game-winning RBIs (unofficially - 21) and highest slugging average (.646). His 46 home runs are the third most in O's history behind Anderson and Frank Robinson (49 in 1966).


Image source: Here.

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Earl Weaver in Sports Illustrated

"That one with Haller was embarrassing. We both acted like five-year-olds. 'My dad can beat up your dad' kind of thing. It's terrible."

-Earl Weaver

Any excuse to post this YouTube video of a September 1980 Earl Weaver argument with umpire Bill Haller is a good one, but in this case it's a really good excuse. Sports Illustrated interviewed Weaver for its annual "Where Are They Now?" edition.



In the lengthy SI piece Weaver describes the outburst, immortalized by YouTube, as "embarrassing." The excerpt about the Haller argument follows.

Earl Weaver was thrown out of more American League games than any other manager in history. He was thrown out in spring training. He was thrown out in the World Series. He was thrown out twice in one day. Twice. (Both ends of a doubleheader.) He was thrown out by an amateur umpire. (The regulars were on strike.)

"Most of the umpires, it's amazing, 98 percent of them will not hold a grudge," Weaver says. "I always felt a couple of them did. I never wanted to argue with an umpire in my life."

Come on, I tell him.

"No," Weaver says, "but in the heat of battle, when you think something is taken away from you, I had to go out there and holler at them. I knew it wasn't going to do much. That one with Haller was embarrassing. We both acted like five-year-olds. 'My dad can beat up your dad' kind of thing. It's terrible."

The Haller argument, which happened the year after Baltimore blew a three-games-to-one lead to Pittsburgh in the '79 World Series, lives on in YouTube posterity because Haller was wired for sound for a local newsmagazine show. Haller is the same umpire who said of Weaver in 2007, "When the bastard dies, they'll have to hire pallbearers."

Another umpire, Ron Luciano, once said he didn't care who won the AL East, so long as it wasn't Weaver and the Orioles. The league kept Luciano off Baltimore games for a year because of that comment. When the ban expired, Luciano threw Weaver out the first chance he got, ejecting him before Weaver even cleared the top step of the dugout to argue a strike call. Weaver protested the game and had the grounds for his protest announced over the stadium loudspeakers: "Umpire integrity."

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Why Not? Wednesdays: Halfway Home and There's Hope

Twenty years ago the Orioles had fans in Baltimore asking "Why Not?" On Wednesdays, Roar from 34 will revisit a game from that same week of the season to see how the O's were putting together an improbable pennant chase just one season removed from 107 losses and a 21-game losing streak to start the year.

On July 5, 1989, the Why Not? Orioles defeated the Toronto Blue Jays 5-4 at the new Skydome to improve to 47-34, 23 games better than their record at the 1988 halfway point. The team's early success led to appearances by Frank Robinson on "Good Morning America" and Gregg Olson and Mickey Tettleton on "Today" prior to the team's trip to Toronto.

Bob Milacki (5-8) earned the victory over Jimmy Key (7-8) during five innings of work that included seven Blue Jay hits and three runs. Key went eight innings, giving up 12 hits and five runs. Gregg Olson got the save for the O's with two innings of work, including a shaky eighth inning that ended with a Lloyd Moseby fly ball with the bases loaded.



Reserve catcher Bob Melvin paced the Orioles at the plate, going 3-for-4 with a double and two RBIs. Melvin, in the first of his three seasons with Baltimore, finished the year batting .241 with one home run and 32 RBIs in 85 games.

Phil Bradley chipped in a home run, Craig Worthington recorded an RBI double, and Randy Milligan added an RBI single for the O's.

The Jays got solid production from the 2-3-4 spots in their lineup as Tony Fernandez and Kelly Gruber went 2-for-4 and George Bell finished 3-for-4.

The match-up in Toronto was the Birds' second go-round with the Blue Jays. Baltimore won both early season series by taking two of three from the eventual A.L. East champions. The Orioles finished 7-6 against the Blue Jays in 1989.

After the July 5 game, the Jays stood 10 games behind the O's in sixth place.

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O's Odds and Ends: Could Someone Please Send ESPN an O's Media Guide?

O's Odds and Ends: The Appreciation Edition.

The rundown: Luke Scott deserves appreciation, Brian Matusz looks like he'll earn some of his own, and the O's would appreciate having their names prounounced correctly.

-He's been the American League Player of the Week. Curtis Granderson figuratively tipped his cap to him back in June. And after his career-high seven RBI night during the O's 12-4 victory Tuesday in Seattle, Luke Scott is the talk of the town. Still, it doesn't seem like enough given the effort that Scott has put together so far during a season that he entered with an uncertain role.

Scott's 17 homers lead the team, and he's third in RBIs behind Aubrey Huff and Nick Markakis. This despite the fact that he's sixth on the team in at-bats, more than 80 behind Adam Jones and Huff and more than 100 behind Markakis. He leads the team (minus Danys Baez ... no, seriously) in slugging percentage, and his .981 OPS would rank third in the American League had he played in enough games to qualify in the rankings. (Note: Scott has only seven fewer at-bats than the Rays' Ben Zobrist who leads the American Leage with a .998 OPS.)

Earlier this season Scott became the first Oriole to homer in four straight games since Miguel Tejada in 2005. His consecutive multi-homer games as part of that binge were the first for the club since Albert Belle did it in 2000. On Tuesday, he became first O's player to drive in seven runs in a game since Ramon Hernandez on May 23, 2006. His seven RBIs were two off the club record, set by Jim Gentile against the Twins on May 9, 1961.

Say it loud, say it proud: Luuuuuuuuuuuuuuuke.

Other O's odds and ends:



-As the O's faced their former homegrown, left-handed ace in the Emerald State on Tuesday, a new homegrown, left-handed ace took the mound in Bowie and pitched a gem.

Brian Matusz fanned 11, walked none, and allowed just one hit for the Baysox in a 6-0 victory over the Harrisburg Senators. Matusz started his Bowie career in June with a six-inning, 10 strikeout "masterpiece" against the Reading Phillies.

Matusz and Man Crush both start with the letter "M." Coincidence?


-Could someone please send an Orioles media guide to the folks in Bristol?

One day after changing Kam Mickolio's first name to "Kim," the SportsCenter crew messed up Dave Trembley's last name. ESPN's Steve Levy called Trembley by the name "Trombley" twice on Tuesday morning.

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