Putting the "O" in Hope

And I ain't talkin' about Obama (directly)

By Matthew Taylor

“It would be a pleasant surprise if we were able to win as many or more games as we were able to win last year,” said starting pitcher Jeremy Guthrie, who was one of the few bright spots from last year’s 69-93 team. “But I think everybody is more prepared for what may come and understanding and accepting of whether we win or lose a little bit more.”

-The Sun

You know that old saying, "You've got to lose a hundred games to win a hundred games?" Me neither. But in the increasingly futile search for optimism surrounding the team I grew up with, I'm looking for the O's to turn this phrase into conventional baseball wisdom.

If one is an anomaly and two is a pattern then three Major League teams twice hitting the century mark within the span of five years - first in losses, then in wins - should qualify for adage consideration.

The Atlanta Braves accomplished the aforementioned feat in the early '90s. The Cleveland Indians followed suit in the middle of the decade. Now it's the O's turn to hit rock bottom before mountain climbing to the peak.

If memory serves

It's easy to forget how bad both the Braves and Indians once were.

O's fans likely remember Atlanta's role as the Interleague qualifying exam during the Birds' 1997 Wire-to-Wire run. Beat the Braves and the O's could officially warrant consideration as contenders. The result? A mid-June, three-game sweep that had Charm City flying high.

As for the Indians, they offer baseball locals the memory of Albert Belle's slugging at the dish and Kenny Lofton's scampering speed in center field. Does anyone have a spare "thunder and lightning" cliché handy?

The Birds lifted the flagging morale of local fans, dispirited by the late-season Roberto Alomar spitting incident, with an upset victory over the 99-win Tribe in the 1995 Division Series. Armando Benitez secured two of the O's three wins.

One year later the Indians returned the favor (say it with me, "Tony Freakin' Fernandez"), taking down the favored 98-win Orioles in the 1997 ALCS. Armando Benitez took two of the O's four losses.

A changed tune

Look a little deeper into the Braves' and Indians' respective team histories and you'll find a promising precedent.

The 1988 Atlanta Braves lost 106 games; in 1993 they won 104. They've eclipsed 100 wins three times since then, winning two NLCS and a World Series over - guess whom - the Cleveland Indians.

The 1991 Cleveland Indians lost 105 games; in 1995 they won 100. They've since won two ALCS.

Two teams. One hundred losses. Soon thereafter, 100 wins.

Fans in Atlanta and Cleveland went from singing the Blues to Rockin' 'n Rollin' within a five-year period.

Now for that Hope thing

The Orioles are preparing in 2008 to do what they've done only 10 times since they were known as the New York Yankees in 1901 and 1902 - lose 100 games.

The last time the Birds dropped 100 games in a season was, infamously, in 1988, when the team opened the year with 21 straight losses. They added 86 more defeats throughout the summer for a grand total of 107 losses.

One year later, in 1989, the O's made a run at the division during the famous "Why Not?" campaign. The team finished with a winning record in six of the 10 following seasons, including that ALCS berth in 1996 and the AL East Division crown in 1997.

So we've come to this.

Do the 2008 O's lack experience at the highest levels of baseball? You bet.

Are Andy McPhail and company peddling optimistic rhetoric to eager supporters? Sure thing.

Can the O's win 100 games within five years? Heck, everyone else is saying it these days, so I might as well follow suit: "Yes, We Can."

Lowest of The Low

No, we’re not talking about Jay Gibbons’ batting average

By Christopher Heun

The Orioles have never been lower as an organization than they are right now.

That might seem like hyperbole, since the roster probably has more talent than five or six years ago and the farm system has improved since then.

But the results on the field haven’t changed in a decade. And the people making the decisions (or is it just one person, Uncle Peter?) haven’t learned from their mistakes.

They’ve fired their manager (for the third time in four seasons) but couldn’t convince the only guy they wanted as a replacement, Joe Girardi, to accept the job.

Just the thought of changing the manager proves that The Warehouse doesn’t get it: even with Earl Weaver at the helm, the Orioles are a bad ball club. They’re not a little luck and one big free agent signing away from contention. Not even close. Not when they can’t play .500 ball.

The only player on the roster who sensibly could be traded for meaningful prospects, Miguel Tejada, broke his wrist and won’t play again until after the July 31 trade deadline has passed.

If Peter Angelos really has accepted the need for a single person to be in charge of all baseball decisions, then he could have picked someone with success building a team from within. The man he named president of baseball operations, Andy MacPhail, has admitted he couldn’t develop position players in his 12 years in Chicago.

Breaking up the roster and acquiring as much young talent as possible is the only way the Birds will become contenders. But no one in The Warehouse seems to realize that. Otherwise, Tejada would have been traded long ago.

On top of that, two young pitching prospects who were supposed to blossom this season have spent most of their time on the disabled list. Adam Loewen is done for the year and Hayden Penn is turning into the second coming of Carl Pavano.

Daniel Cabrera, the third young arm always mentioned in the same breath as Loewen and Penn as the rotation of the future, has an ERA over 5.00. He's fully embraced his fate as the reincarnation of Bobby Witt.

In mid June, before Perlozzo was sent packing, I thought it couldn’t get any worse after the Birds were swept at home by the supposedly inferior Nats. Then they lost three more games, pushing their losing streak to eight. Then they fell into last place and 12 games under .500. Then Perlozzo was fired and the star player broke his wrist.

To be fair, newcomers Jeremy Guthrie and Brian Burres have stepped into the starting rotation and performed well, though much of their work has been wasted because of poor run support. Only two teams in the American League have scored fewer runs; only three have a lower slugging percentage.

No one should expect that to change anytime soon (Who’s excited about two more years of Aubrey Huff?) The only hitting prospect playing above Single A, outfielder Nolan Reimold, hasn’t played in nearly two months because of a strained oblique muscle. Georgia Tech catcher Matt Wieters, whom the Orioles drafted earlier this summer, will instantly become the club’s best minor league hitter once his agent, Scott Boras, allows him to sign a contract.

Some fans are holding their breath for Mark Texiera, a free agent after next season. Rather than meet the Rangers’ asking price in a trade, the Orioles would be wise to save their prospects and hope for the best once the first baseman hits the open market.

The good thing about hitting rock bottom is there’s no way to go but up. Now that the Birds have nestled into familiar territory, 10 games under .500, the bullpen will get better and some one-run games may go their way for a change. Even during their losing streak last month, they weren’t getting blown out.

The harder trick will be getting anything more valuable than AA relievers in return for mediocre veterans that predominate the Orioles roster. That’s a topic better left for another day.

All-Star is Lone Star for Orioles

Roberts will go it alone in San Francisco

by Matthew Taylor

Congrats to Brian Roberts, who made the AL All-Star roster via the Player Ballot. He's the O's lone All-Star representative.

The Orioles official MLB website makes the case for Roberts:

"Roberts went into Sunday's game ranked first among his positional peers in on-base percentage (.412) and second in batting average (.326). As if that's not enough of a case, only one other American League second baseman with at least 200 at-bats had a higher slugging mark (.454). Roberts also leads the league with 25 stolen bases."

Dayn Perry of Fox Sports thinks Roberts should be starting instead of Placido Palanco.

Meanwhile, CBS Sportsline lists Jeremy Guthrie among its All-Star snubs.

Says Guthrie: "If you look around, there's a number of starters and relievers who are having really big years. It's just good to be considered."

By any measure, the AL pitching staff is a tough rotation to crack.